BREXIT BLOODBATH Old versus young What’s next? as divided nation tears itself apart
BRITAIN’S referendum vote to leave the EU pitted parents against children, cities against rural areas, north against south and university graduates against those with fewer qualifications.
“This is a referendum in which a cosmopolitan, socially liberal Britain was outvoted by a more socially conservative part of the country that is deeply concerned by immigration,” polling expert John Curtice told the BBC.
Here are the key voting trends from Thursday’s referendum:
London, Scotland and Northern Ireland voted to remain in the EU, but Wales and large swathes of England, particularly former industrial hubs in the north with many disaffected workers, backed Brexit.
England backed the Leave campaign by 53.4% to 46.6%.
Scotland, though, backed to remain by 62% to 38%, prompting First Minister Nicola Sturgeon to say a second vote on independence from Britain was “on the table”.
Scotland voted in September 2014 by 55% to remain part of the UK.
Wales, which had been seen as a key bellwether for the national vote, voted for Brexit by 52.5% to 47.5%. In the capital, Cardiff, however, 60% of voters opted to stay in the EU.
Northern Ireland also voted to remain, by 55.8% to 44.2%.
That sparked calls from the Sinn Fein party, part of the power-sharing executive in Northern Ireland, to call for a vote on uniting with the Republic of Ireland.
The border between Ireland and Northern Ireland will now become the EU’s only land border with Britain.
In Gibraltar, which has a border with Spain, but is formally a British overseas territory, 95.9% of the votes were to stay.
The referendum also underlined the social and cultural gap between London and provincial England, said Curtice.
The result showed high rates of euroscepticism in Labour’s former heartlands in the north and in farming areas in eastern England which have seen high numbers of arrivals of migrant workers from eastern Europe.
“Throughout the midlands and the north of England, the level of support to remain was well below what was required for it to win,” he said.
Most of London strongly backed to remain, with some areas voting more than 78% to stay in the EU.
Outer London boroughs, particularly less affluent ones, told a different story, with a strong vote for Brexit.
Northern England’s biggest city, Manchester, and nearby Liverpool both voted in, but the poorer regions around them voted out.
There were also major divisions between predominantly pro-EU younger voters and more anti-EU older voters, but the key trend, Curtice noted, was the split by education level.
“One of the key messages of the opinion polls was that graduates were much keener on remaining than those with few, if any, qualifications.
“This is also clearly reflected in the geographical pattern of the vote,” he said.
“In those places with most graduates the average level of support for remain was 58% . . . whereas in those with fewest graduates it was just 39%.”
The Independent newspaper said the results “show the gulf between a liberal metropolitan class and working-class people worried about immigration; between those doing well from globalisation and those ‘left behind’ and not seeing the benefits in jobs or wages”.
But it said the main split was “the chasm between the political class and the voters, who grabbed the free hit [Prime Minister David] Cameron unwisely handed them to give the ruling elite a kicking”.
Cameron’s Conservative Party, racked for decades by strains over Europe, was split top to bottom by the referendum: his justice minister, Michael Gove, and former Tory London mayor Boris Johnson became the de facto leaders of the Leave campaign.
Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn was widely criticised for his lukewarm VOTING BY POSTER: Protesters unhappy with the referendum result show their anger outside No 10 Downing Street while the newspapers reflect the outcome — along with some particular preferences campaigning to remain, and failing to persuade working-class Labour voters who opted for leave in droves.
The Scottish National Party, the Liberal Democrats and the Greens were all officially on the Remain side and their failure to convince their voters in sufficient numbers cost the stay camp.
The leave/remain split, by party, was: 96-4 UK Independence Party; 58-42 Conservatives; 37-63 Labour; 36-64 Scottish Nationalists; 30-70 Liberal Democrats; 25-75 Greens. — AFP
FOR MORE VIEWS ON BREXIT, TURN TO PAGES 14 AND 17
BRITISH voters’ decision to walk out on the EU has set up at least two years of bitter talks. Here’s a road map of what’s to come.
The prime minister said on Friday that he would stay in office for at least three months to “steady the ship”. He said Britain should have a new leader by the time his party meets for its conference in October and it should be the next prime minister who starts the negotiations with the EU.
Cameron will travel to Brussels this week to brief EU leaders on the UK situation. The other national leaders will want to know what sort of relationship the UK wants to have with the EU. There may also be an emergency meeting of finance ministers. Cameron said he would not trigger the start of the secession process under Article 50 of the EU treaty. That would be up to the next prime minister.
Once Article 50 is set in motion, the UK formally has two years to negotiate its way out of the bloc. Analysts say it’s unlikely that this will be long enough to work out the more complex trading accords and talks are likely to continue long after the UK leaves.
Cameron’s successor is most likely to be one of the leaders of the Brexit campaign, such as former London mayor Boris Johnson or Secretary of State for Justice Michael Gove. Their presence may harden the stance of other EU governments. What sort of deal does Britain want?
That’s still to be decided, and something that the Leave camp couldn’t answer definitively during its winning campaign. Three issues in particular will be in focus for investors and executives: what new agreement will regulate the $575-billion (about R8.7-trillion) of annual trade between Britain and the rest of the EU?
On what terms will UK companies be able to access the EU’s $13.6-trillion single market?
And will banks domiciled in the UK continue to be able to do business in the rest of the EU? What will the EU offer?
The response will largely fall into two camps: the pragmatic German approach will probably acknowledge that the UK needs to remain a major trading partner; the French will be leading another group that believes exit shouldn’t be easy and that countries on the outside don’t merit the same favourable conditions as EU members.
Add to the mix, the rise of anti-EU sentiment in eastern Europe, a drive for deeper integration in the euro area and some sympathy for Britain’s decision among Nordic governments, and it’s clear the next few years won’t be straightforward. —Bloomberg
The voters grabbed the free hit Cameron unwisely handed them to give the ruling elite a kicking