Not that united, less great

THE mantra from the UK campaign to leave the EU was that the country could survive perfectly well on its own. The question now is whether the UK can survive at all.

The Scottish National Party said the decision to leave justified another vote on Scotland’s independence.

Results of the referendum showed Scotland voted to remain in the 28-member EU bloc, while England and Wales opted to leave, setting up another showdown between London and Edinburgh. In Belfast, Irish republicans Sinn Fein called for a referendum on Irish reunification.

Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said the decision to leave the EU was “democratically unacceptable”.

She said the vote represented a “significant and material change” in the circumstances in which Scotland voted against independence in 2014.

The Brexit fallout leaves British Prime Minister David Cameron — and his successor once he steps down by October — not only dealing with a divorce from the EU, but also potentially fighting to keep the British union intact after more than three centuries.

“We’re seeing the end of the union,” said Tim Ash, a London-based strategist. “There is no way to stop the momentum now towards Scots independence, and second time around, given the pro-EU majority in Scotland, they will vote to leave.”

Brexit is one of the game-changers the Scottish nationalists have said would prompt them to seek another referendum on full autonomy. Another was a turn in the polls to show a clear majority would back independence.

Before the EU referendum, a survey showed the country of 5.4 million was split roughly as in the 2014 independence vote, in which 55% to 45% opted to remain in the UK.

The acrimonious Brexit campaign that played out in most of the UK, with claims and counterclaims on the economy and immigration, barely touched Scotland.

The political establishment was united in remaining in the EU with the leaders of the largest parties — the SNP, Conservatives and Labour — all sharing a platform. In Northern Ireland, the divide was along political lines in the Belfast assembly.

The result intensified the case for a vote on Irish unity, said Martin McGuinness, Northern Ireland’s deputy first minister.

Ireland was split in 1921 as part of the deal that gave most of the island independence from Britain, creating the 500km border between the two states.

But given the majority of the Democratic Unionist Party in the Northern Ireland Assembly, a referendum isn’t likely to take place any time soon.

In Northern Ireland, the margin of victory to remain in Europe was 56% to 44%.

In Scotland the vote to remain was greater, 62% to 38%.

The ensuing negotiations on areas such as fishing rights and agriculture may be key to what course Scotland and Northern Ireland decide to chart.

There’s also raw cash. Scotland is due almost à1-billion (R16.7-billion) from the EU between 2014 and 2020 from two development funds. Northern Ireland also is a large recipient as a dividend of the peace process following the sectarian conflict.

We’re seeing the end of the union. There is no way to stop the momentum