Ten advances that will change our world in the next decade
WHAT if you could predict which technologies would go mainstream in the next 10 years? Would that give your business an edge in identifying vanishing and emerging industry sectors and segments?
It may well do, but it wouldn’t be because you know more than anyone else. In reality, all it takes is to join the dots from the technologies that are already being proved, demonstrated or prototyped, through to the time it is likely to take for these to reach the mainstream.
Asked to give a lecture at the University of the Witwatersrand this week on the technology trends shaping the next 10 years, I reached not for a crystal ball but for the public statements of major corporations, recent product demonstrations and consumer behaviour and preferences.
The obvious as well as not-soobvious technologies coming to the mainstream globally follow a fairly predictable timeline:
2017: Virtual reality and augmented reality. Google’s do-ityourself VR kit, Cardboard, is being mass-produced cheaply and given away at expos. Augmented reality is working its way into factories, universities and hospitals.
2018: Robots in restaurants. They already take orders and payments in Japan and China, and are about to invade the kitchen.
2019: Artificial intelligence bankers. In South Africa, it will be more about security than advice, but robo-advisers will be rolled out by most major international banks over the next three years.
2020: Self-driving cars. Almost a dozen manufacturers have projected it as the year they will start producing autonomous vehicles for the mass market. Entire industries, from insurance to chip-makers, will reinvent themselves. Regulators will be the last to wake up.
2021: Health technology changes the focus of medicine and caring. Medical insurance will require active monitoring of at-risk patients, for example through chips injected into the bloodstream, giving early warning of medical emergencies, transmitted from the body to the user’s phone and from there to medical specialists.
2022: The smart home. The fragmented industries of home automation, solar energy and virtual assistants will begin to coalesce — for those who can afford it — into homes that take on some of the roles of cooking, cleaning, childcare, maintenance and energy management. Electricians will be on call 24/7.
2023: Virtual devices. The smartphone, computer and other devices that depend on a processor and screen display will disappear, as virtual interfaces become cheaper, more flexible and standardised. Sony and Lenovo are releasing early iterations of such technology.
2024: The school of tomorrow arrives. The classroom may not evolve from the Victorian style designed for the industrial age, but teaching will. The penny will finally drop that we need to teach creativity, problem-solving and collaboration skills, rather than rote learning.
2025: The augmented policeman. Public safety officials will be equipped with augmented reality eyeware, automated drones using AI, and command centres using VR.
2026: Instant data. Researchers at Wits are exploring new ways of speeding up information transmission, ranging from packing 100 times more data into the same light stream to twisting laser beams so that information can be “teleported” instantly via light particles.
Many more major new technologies will arrive in-between, but you can count on these 10 to change the world of work and play in the next decade.
Goldstuck is the founder of World Wide Worx and editor-inchief of Gadget.co.za. Follow him on Twitter and Instagram @art2gee