Growing insecurity saves Abenomics

WITH most of the world’s leading economies in some or other state of bother mostly relating to an over-indebted state and private sector, it remains surprising that the world’s most indebted nation attracts headlines less gloomy than those related to Italy’s economy, for example.

Japan has a debt-to-GDP ratio close to 230%. At the end of 2008, that figure was an already alarming 171%.

Italy, whose banking problems have raised the prospect of a much deeper recession, has a debt-to-GDP ratio of just over 132%.

South Africa’s ratio is just over 50%.

And yet, in any discussion on economic prospects, Italy and its neighbours are singled out as much more fragile.

The South African government has all but exhausted any space to stimulate the economy. Any attempts to do so would be swiftly followed by a ratings backlash.

It seems rather unfair that Japan, with the tag of most indebted, is a safer bet.

I’ve long accepted that the case of Japan and its economy that’s been comatose for nearly 20 years is best consigned to a drawer in my consciousness titled “lost in translation”.

Economic growth has averaged 0.48% from 1980 until 2016, according to Trading Economics.

So, when the opportunity came to demystify the land of the rising sun, I easily overlooked the back pain and jet lag that would be part of the 24hour trip.

So how does the Japanese economy continue to be among the wealthiest despite the tag of being the world’s most indebted?

Under the premiership of Shinzo Abe, Japan has followed an economic path popularly known as Abenomics. In a nutshell, the yen has been weakened to boost Japan’s exporting giants such as Toyota by printing the currency in a manner similar to the US Fed’s quantitative easing programme — but on steroids.

The outcome has been skyrocketing markets, barring dips triggered by events such as Britain’s Brexit foolishness. And exporters have benefited from a weaker currency.

But these benefits have not been passed on to workers through higher wages, which would help stimulate much needed consumer spend and ignite inflation.

Instead, consumer prices fell in May — for the third straight month. And growth remains a struggle, despite the Nikkei being up about 60% since Abe took office in December 2012.

Increasing consumption to stimulate the economy is made more difficult by the ageing population, with more than a third of Japanese older than 65 — an unlikely consumer class.

There was a stillness in the streets of Tokyo. Admittedly I was living in the government quarter, but for a city with a population of more than

It seems unfair that Japan, with the tag of most indebted, is a safer bet

13 million, it fit the economic picture I’ve painted.

There are question marks about Abenomics, but in the week I was there, the political story was whether he and his coalition would be able to push through parliament and then put to a referendum fundamental changes to Japan’s almost 70-year-old pacifist constitution.

Geopolitical tensions in the region offer a perfect platform from which Abe can argue for the changes and I suspect that conversations in Japan will now solely focus on these questions and what an armed nation means for the region and the world. A useful distraction.

The issue is less complex than the questions posed by its economy, but so much more discomforting.