Pap ’n vleis gives way to chicken ’n bread

TRADITIONAL “pap en vleis” is becoming increasingly unaffordable for many South Africans, who may have to consider alternatives.

Price pressure on consumer favourites may prompt a shortterm shift towards bread and chicken, according to a report by the Bureau for Food and Agriculture Policy this week.

The report, which aims to inform decision-making in the agricultural sector, forecasts shifts in market supply and demand by looking at probable influences such as climate and currency fluctuations.

It found that meat and maize were likely to remain under price pressure in the near future, due in part to the aftereffects of the drought.

“A phase of herd rebuilding in response to improved weather conditions would induce a sharp and prolonged increase in domestic beef prices in the coming years,” the report said.

“Affordability being an important consideration for cashstrapped consumers, poultry products are projected to account for the bulk of meat consumption growth, though the rate of expansion is expected to slow significantly from the past decade.”

Food inflation has hit consumers hard, particularly lower-income groups that spend up to 35% of disposable income on groceries.

This pressure was expected to continue into 2017, with an easing off later in the year, the report noted.

The cost of a single serving of maize meal increased by 43.7% between April 2015 and April 2016. By comparison, the cost of A SQUARE MEAL(IE): Tucking in to traditional pap and vleis

There’s been a 15% reduction in the national herd

a serving of white bread increased by only 9%.

“In light of minimal income growth, poor households are most likely facing a reality of consuming less food and, given overall high food inflation, even less dietary diversity,” the report said.

Western Cape economic opportunities MEC Alan Winde said in a report on Friday that the drought had reduced farm production by 15% in the province. “There has been a 15% reduction in the national herd. There’s been increased slaughtering during the drought and this will continue to impact production for the next three to four years.”

Winde also highlighted climate change as a concern: “Last year, South Africa experienced its lowest rainfall since 1904.”