Trapped with Zuma in ‘Groundhog Day’
IN the movie Groundhog Day, weatherman Phil Connors ends up stuck in a time warp. No matter what he does, he wakes up each morning for years to relive the same day. He behaves increasingly badly and does terrible things to others and, because each day begins afresh, there are no consequences for his actions.
That’s how South Africa feels right now. Stuck in a ridiculous time warp where the lessons learnt in December about messing with the economy have been swiftly forgotten and the country feels it is watching an endless, increasingly offensive rerun of the same theme. But here there are real-world consequences.
With just eight weeks to go before the next round of ratings agency scrutiny begins, there is plenty of reason to suspect that the organisations that determine our credit rating are running out of patience and goodwill towards the South African story.
Whereas the ratings agencies in June found enough reasons to not downgrade us, chances are that unless we exorcise our political demons — fast — we could be junk way before Christmas. It has investors worried. When capital retreats, chaos looms.
The optimism that greeted the reappointment of Pravin Gordhan as finance minister with a mission to dodge a June downgrade is fading fast. South Africa, given a post-Brexit opportunity to get its financial affairs in order, is intent on squandering the respite and appears hellbent on taking the economy over a cliff.
The big difference this time is that there is a far quicker public reaction to the slow-motion train crash set up by the Hawks’ action against Gordhan this week. Business organisations are standing firm. Business Leadership South Africa wrote an open letter to the president urging him to call off the dogs.
Jabu Mabuza at Business Unity South Africa warned that eight months of hard work was under threat of implosion. Was this a slap in the face to the collective effort of the government, business and labour? He conceded that it was.
So far South Africa has been able to pull itself back from the brink of economic self-destruction. But each time it feels that the cliff erodes a little more as we stare deeper into the abyss.
Considering the broad support for the finance minister in the face of extraordinary pressure, there is room for optimism that the same will happen this time. But not without considerable damage being done in the meantime.
Ironically, messing with the economy is not only reckless, it is fundamentally anti-poor.
If policymakers implement a stupid decision, pursue flawed policy or simply ignore the consequences of their actions, the economy suffers. And while it’s those among the middle classes and the wealthy who squeal the loudest, they tend to be better equipped to survive a crisis than the poor, who are most vulnerable to factors like currency fluctuations, which impact inflation and pretty soon affect the cost of everything from food to transport.
It’s not clear what is more terrifying: the assault on Gordhan or the amateurish manner in which the attack has been co-ordinated. Ignoring the flimsy legal case, the letter demanding Gordhan appear before the Hawks was sent to the wrong address. History warns the blunt instruments of enforcement in the past were, to torture the analogy, seldom the sharpest tools in the shed. It didn’t make them any less destructive.
George Soros gets it. The legendary trader who made his first fortune betting against the pound in the ’80s has made and lost plenty since. His philosophy: “I am only rich because I know when I’m wrong. I basically have survived by recognising my mistakes.”
Until President Jacob Zuma acknowledges his mistakes, South Africa will stagger at or around the zero growth level.
How does Groundhog Day end? Phil gets the girl — but only once he amends his narcissistic behaviour. In that lies a lesson for us.
Whitfield is an award-winning multimedia journalist and public speaker