And the Oscar (possibly) goes to . . .
SINCE their inception 89 years ago, the Academy Awards have been plagued by dissent — and this year promises to be no different. Here are our predictions for who is likely to win tonight, and who we think deserves to win. Best picture
NOMINEES: Arrival, Fences, Hacksaw Ridge, Hell or High Water, Hidden Figures, La La Land, Lion, Manchester by the Sea, Moonlight.
SHOULD WIN: Moonlight, for turning the life of a gay black man in a rough world into a film of luminous beauty.
WILL WIN: La La Land, because it is a crowd-pleasing musical tribute to old-school Hollywood. Best director NOMINEES: Damien Chazelle, La La Land; Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge; Barry Jenkins, Moonlight; Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea; Denis Villeneuve, Arrival. SHOULD WIN: Jenkins, for making a film that rises above the pain of its subject matter. WILL WIN: Chazelle, for coaxing effervescent performances from his actors (they’re so good they trick the audience into thinking they can really sing). DEFINITELY WON’T WIN: Gibson.
Best actress
NOMINEES: Isabelle Huppert, Elle; Ruth Negga, Loving; Natalie Portman, Jackie; Emma Stone, La La Land; Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins.
SHOULD WIN: Portman, for making Jackie Kennedy more real than the real Jackie Kennedy. WILL WIN: Stone, because she embodies the golden-age spirit of America’s sweetheart, and because Portman already has an Oscar, and because Streep, who is transcendent as the tone-deaf Florence, already has many Oscars.
Best actor
NOMINEES: Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea; Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge; Ryan Gosling, La La Land; Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic; Denzel Washington, Fences. SHOULD WIN: Mortensen, for wearing a hideous red suit without shame, and showing how a fine, flawed father should behave. WILL WIN: Washington, because he’s at the top of his game as a selfish, charismatic rubbish collector.
Best supporting actress
NOMINEES: Viola Davis, Fences; Naomie Harris, Moonlight; Nicole Kidman, Lion; Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures; Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea. SHOULD WIN: Davis, for her powerful monologue as a wife who is not willing to be put down any more. WILL WIN: Davis, because she deserves it, and because she has twice been nominated without winning (for Doubt in 2009 and The Help in 2012).
Best supporting actor
NOMINEES: Mahershala Ali, Moonlight; Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water; Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea; Dev Patel, Lion; Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals. SHOULD WIN: Shannon, whose unforgettable portrayal of a vengeful Texan detective is let down by the rest of Tom Ford’s meandering film. WILL WIN: Hedges, for injecting bittersweet lightness into a film weighed down by grief.