Farming awaits crop updates in better shape
SOUTH Africa will this week receive an updated forecast of this year’s maize harvest when the crop estimates committee releases its second report of the season. The maize price has plummeted on expectations of a bumper crop and hopes that fall armyworm has not had a significant effect.
The monthly update, due for release on Tuesday, comes as the agriculture industry appears to be in better shape than two years ago when it was hit hard by drought, which reduced crop production and led to higher food price inflation.
The impact was very deep, with depleted natural grazing forcing farmers to slaughter livestock as the cost of feed escalated. Demand for agricultural machinery such as tractors and fertiliser suffered, affecting suppliers.
The low grain volumes also affected companies that handle silo operations, notably Senwes.
Sugar producers too were in the firing line of drought due to the Pacific Ocean weather phenomenon called El Niño, which brings hot and dry conditions with it.
But good rainfall since has enabled farmers to replenish grain stocks.
Agriculture is now expected to contribute positively to the country’s gross domestic product this year, after the sector contracted at least eight times in the past seven quarters, according to Statistics SA data.
The planting season, which usually runs from October to December, has been relatively optimal, with farmers managing to increase the area planted for summer crops such as maize, raising expectations of a bigger harvest this year.
A bumper harvest usually leads to a drop in spot prices of the grains — ranging from maize meal to winter cereals — which are used as basic inputs in food production.
National Agricultural Marketing Council manager for agro-food chains Christo Joubert said it took about four months on average for the lower maize price to reflect at the retail level.
The outbreak of a potentially destructive alien pest known as fall armyworm has had a limited effect on
Agriculture is now expected to contribute positively to GDP
prices so far, with white maize for July delivery trading at R1 700 a ton this week compared with record highs of more than R5 000 a little more than a year ago.
Yellow maize, which is used mainly as animal feed, now fetches R1 832 a ton, down from highs of more than R4 000 last year. Prices of sunflower and soybeans have also fallen significantly in recent months.
Manfred Venter, founder of consultancy firm Keep SA Farming, said most farmers had acted pre-emptively by spraying crops that were vulnerable to fall armyworm, which has now been detected in seven provinces with Western Cape and Eastern Cape being the exceptions. The outbreak of the invasive species last month has galvanised stakeholders, from farmers to government, resulting in the approval of chemicals to fend off fall armyworm, which has its roots in South and Central America.
The pest is known to cause extensive crop losses of up to 73% depending on
Two years ago, drought reduced output and led to higher food prices
existing conditions and is difficult to control with a single type of pesticide, according to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation.
Marinda Visser, grain research and policy manager at Grain-SA, said the farmers’ body continued to work closely with other stakeholders in dealing with fall armyworm.
In its production estimate for the year, the CEC said last month the total maize crop was expected to be 13.9 million tons this year, which is nearly double that of last year. South Africa consumes 10 million tons annually.
Harvesting is normally done from mid-June to mid-August.