Kim’s game: he wants to be respected if not loved
The war threats by Kim Jong-un are a strategy to win what the North Korean regime really wants from the West — recognition, writes
“A THERMONUCLEAR war may break out any moment,” North Korea warned on Friday. This was one of the latest threats from the Kim Jong-un regime to the US, South Korea, and the rest of the world.
Why does Pyongyang insist on seemingly putting the Korean peninsula on the brink of war every so often? There is a clear, practical reason.
The country’s missile and nuclear programme is not sufficiently developed. It has yet to successfully miniaturise a nuclear warhead to mount on a long-range missile.
To understand the provocations and threats is to analyse the psychology underpinning the Kim regime. It craves recognition.
Pyongyang cannot fathom that others do not treat it with the respect that it thinks it deserves. It wants North Korea to be seen as a normal country. It is as simple as that. This entails the establishment of diplomatic relations with the US — as well as with Japan if possible.
Provocations and threats are seen as a means to achieve this objective. In the past, North Korea initiated nuclear crises that eventually led to bilateral discussions with the US.
This was the case during the Bill Clinton and George W Bush years. Both administrations signed documents that, if fully implemented, would have led to the reciprocal opening of embassies in Washington and Pyongyang. Barack Obama’s “strategic patience” made this approach redundant but Kim is probably betting that President Donald Trump will eventually follow in the steps of Clinton and Bush.
North Korea also wants recognition as a nuclear power. Its southern neighbour might be much richer and a stronger international diplomatic and political actor, but it does not have the ultimate weapon. This counts in Korean relations.
Equally relevant is the fact that recognition as one of eight nuclear powers changes the dynamics of Pyongyang’s engagement with the rest of the world. From its perspective, nuclear weapons guarantee the survival of the regime. Thus North Korea is not in a position of weakness; it is a country that can look at the US or China as an equal.
Finally, and closely related to the above, the Kim regime wants recognition that it is here to stay.
In the 1990s, countless books and articles predicted the collapse of North Korea. Clinton even considered a surgical strike against the country’s nuclear facilities.
In 2003 Donald Rumsfeld, the US defence secretary at the time, signed the deployment of long-range bombers to Guam — within striking distance of the country.
So it is unsurprising that North Korean leaders have felt a bit queasy about the extent to which Washington has doubts about the regime’s survival.
The regime wants to make it clear that the US and other powers have to deal with North Korea as it is, instead of thinking about a future under a different government. SERIOUS SAILORS: A stern-faced North Korean navy guard for its Pukkuksong missile, which can be launched from a submarine. The country does not, however, have a nuclear device small enough to fit onto the rocket
Its neighbour is rich but it does not have the ultimate weapon