Ranjeni on how Mpumalanga’s Mabuza moved into pole position

The only certainty about the outcome of the ANC leadership contest in December is that it will not follow any presupposed formulas.

The delegate numbers contained in an internal memo sent by ANC secretary-general Gwede Mantashe to provincial secretaries reflect that the game is wide open, with various outcomes possible, particularly as it is not a two-horse race.

The most sought-after person in the ANC over the next few weeks will be Mpumalanga chairman David Mabuza. He has played a strategic game to position himself as kingmaker and secure a position as a top official.

The first thing Mabuza did was to back out of the “premier league” faction aligned to President Jacob Zuma and carrying Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma’s campaign. This gave him the ability to negotiate with all the presidential contenders and provincial leaders with a minimum requirement on his part: a place at the top table.

The second thing Mabuza did was pull his province together. Unlike other provinces plagued by factional warfare, Mpumalanga now has minimum levels of dissent. This increases Mabuza’s bargaining power.

The third thing he did was boost membership to swell his delegate numbers at the national conference.

Mantashe’s memo reveals that Mpumalanga’s delegation will be the second largest after KwaZulu-Natal, moving up from fifth largest in 2012.

With the deep split in KwaZulu-Natal, there is uncertainty over who is in charge and who will ultimately determine who the province’s delegates are. So Mpumalanga reigns as the biggest playmaker.

One issue where there seems to be consensus in the ANC is about the need for an ANC constitutional change to increase the number of top officials from six. The change could include a second deputy president position and a second deputy secretary-general.

To secure this change, the national conference must approve it by a twothirds majority. This means that no matter how bad the factional warfare gets, there needs to be a degree of cooperation.

Mabuza’s “unity” message therefore hits home, and all the factions know they need him.

Gauteng is playing a similar game, trying to pull together supporters of competing presidential contenders in order to build universal support for a top official post for its chairman, Paul Mashatile.

But Gauteng has now revealed its cards regarding the presidency. At a meeting with Gauteng branch chairmen and secretaries this week, Mashatile declared that their preferred candidate was Cyril Ramaphosa.

However, he placed Dlamini-Zuma, Zweli Mkhize, Lindiwe Sisulu, Baleka Mbete, Senzo Mchunu and Mabuza in a pool that should be considered for other top posts.

The question is, who is Mpumalanga’s preferred candidate?

Mkhize seems to be the person speaking the same language as Mabuza, but the Mpumalanga leader is keeping his options open.

Now that the delegate numbers have been revealed, all the campaign teams will be pursuing him with offers.

Whatever happens, Mabuza is sitting pretty.

Mkhize seems to be the person speaking the same language as Mabuza