Fearing split, ANC seeks leadership agreement
ANC provincial chairpersons are scrambling to avoid a feared split in the party after the national conference, and are working behind the scenes to seek an arranged leadership outcome.
Gauteng ANC chairman Paul Mashatile and his North West counterpart Supra Mahumapelo will today convene a meeting of provincial chairmen on the sidelines of the ANC national executive committee meeting in Pretoria.
Mpumalanga premier David Mabuza told the Sunday Times the meeting had to find consensus on who should become president to avoid a bruising leadership battle that could result in the losing faction forming a new party to take on the ANC in the 2019 general elections.
Mabuza said a leadership contest at the ANC’s Nasrec conference must be avoided.
“Some comrades don’t take [losing] in a comradely manner . . . I’m saying let’s find consensus. Let’s accommodate each other. I’ll be the happiest person if there is no contestation at conference.”
Mabuza’s concern is shared by many in the ANC as another split could cost the party in the 2019 elections. Its support has dropped sharply since the 2014 general elections, when it received more than 62% of the vote. There are fears the party could for the first time dip below 50% should the losers walk away, as it only managed 54% nationally in last year’s local government elections.
Mabuza’s move comes as the majority of branches in his province snubbed both frontrunners Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa and Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma and instead wrote “unity” on the nomination forms. Now Mabuza is using the 223 branches to convince other party leaders to agree on an arranged leadership outcome.
Latest branch nominations show Ramaphosa ahead of Dlamini-Zuma with 1 278 official nominations, compared to her 800.
Gauteng became the latest province to nominate Ramaphosa last night as he got 374 against Dlamini-Zuma’s 64. But Dlamini-Zuma’s backers claimed the 223 Mpumalanga “unity” delegates were in fact theirs.
Mahumapelo told delegates to the North
West provincial general council the meeting of provincial leaders would not overturn the results of branch nominations unless branches gave the goahead.
“Provincial chairpersons will be meeting to strive for the need for an uncontested leadership. If there is going to be contestation, we must discuss how that contestation must be understood. It must be understood as a contestation that will strengthen the ANC,” he said.
But Mabuza’s proposal is expected to face strong opposition from DlaminiZuma’s staunchest backers, the ANC in KwaZulu-Natal.
Provincial chairman Sihle Zikalala said that although they were open to engagement, they would not support an arranged outcome. “I see a possibility of engaging each other, but not avoiding voting. Voting is a democratic process.”
Today’s meeting comes at a time when President Jacob Zuma is spearheading a move to accommodate all seven presidential candidates. He has proposed that the losing presidential candidates become deputy presidents.
But Zikalala said KwaZulu-Natal was not in support of that proposal.
“We were the first to make that proposal but some comrades thought it was based on numbers because we feared losing. Let us accommodate those who don’t make it to the top six [as] the additional members of the NEC. Only those who qualify to be on the ballot must be accommodated,” said Zikalala.
His province, KwaZulu-Natal, is expected to reveal its nominations on Tuesday. Its numbers are expected to give Dlamini-Zuma a boost as the majority of branches have endorsed her.
Another Ramaphosa stronghold, Limpopo, will make its candidates known today.
A total of 3 388 ANC branches are expected to send delegates to conference.
The number of nominations are counted per branch and could result in more votes as some branches are expected to send more than one delegate to the national conference.
A branch with 100 members will send one delegate, while the party’s biggest branch, Ward 1 in eThekwini, will send a minimum of seven.
A total of 4 731 branch delegates and an additional 509 leaders of leagues, the national executive committee and the nine provincial executive committees are expected to cast their ballot in two weeks. KwaZulu-Natal will send the biggest delegation of 870 branch delegates and 30 PEC members.
Political analyst Somadoda Fikeni said Dlamini-Zuma would recover with the help of KwaZulu-Natal.
“[KwaZulu-Natal] will come through for Dlamini-Zuma without a doubt, but the question is: by what margin?”
Following Mpumalanga’s move not to fully endorse either of the two candidates, intense lobbying is expected to take place in the next two weeks.
Fikeni said the Mpumalanga stance was worrying for Dlamini-Zuma. “That the outcome of the Mpumalanga PGC came so close to a tie [with Ramaphosa] may actually worry the Dlamini-Zuma camp because they had counted on the province’s support as a given. That situation forces both camps to go to the drawing board and the ANC to clearly define what it means by unity.”
The Mabuza camp believes his strategy would avert a split, which they think is possible. While they did not believe Ramaphosa would start a breakaway group, they think his backers may.
A Mabuza ally said the unity talks spearheaded by Mabuza were likely to exclude Ramaphosa.
Leaders seen to be backing Ramaphosa, and who Mabuza would argue to have accommodated in the negotiations, include ANC secretary-general Gwede Mantashe, who has been nominated as national chairman on the Ramaphosa slate.
An Mpumalanga leader said while the presidency may still be contested, the negotiations were aimed at trying to find some common ground on the other top positions.
The Dlamini-Zuma camp, led by Energy Minister David Mahlobo and Umkhonto weSizwe Military Veterans Association president Kebby Maphatsoe, has reached out to ANC Gauteng chairman Mashatile, who has been nominated as treasurer-general on the Ramaphosa slate.
Mashatile won the nomination in Mpumalanga with 85 votes compared to the nominee for the same position on the Dlamini-Zuma slate, Maite NkoanaMashabane, who received 36 votes.