Hope for the best when the ANC votes next week, but prepare for the worst

On a cold November night in 2008, then US president Barack Obama and his family walked onto the stage at Grant Park in Chicago where he delivered a rousing election victory speech. “If there is anyone out there who still doubts that America is a place where all things are possible, who still wonders if the dream of our founders is alive in our time, who still questions the power of our democracy, tonight is your answer,” were the first words from America’s first black president.

It evoked tears and cheers from an estimated crowd of 240 000 and millions watching around the world.

When I went to the US last year to cover the 2016 presidential election, I hoped to witness such a moment.

Hillary Clinton was an imperfect and controversial candidate but her election would have been historic.

It had been a messy campaign with Donald Trump dumbing down the discourse, inflaming prejudice and making unrealistic promises, as well as the damaging leaks of Clinton’s e-mails and a bombardment of disinformation against her.

The journalists, analysts and pollsters I encountered were confident Clinton would win. Many newspapers designed front pages proclaiming the first woman president of the US.

Well, we all know how that turned out.

There was disbelief, grief and anger, and nobody knew who to blame.

This is the problem with people superimposing their hopes and preferences in situations they are supposed to assess clinically. The world was utterly unprepared for the Trump carnival because hardly anyone seriously considered the prospect of him winning.

This is why we need to approach the ANC’s

54th national conference with our eyes wide open.

There are too many people who are deluded by their own preferences and prejudices about the battle between Cyril Ramaphosa and Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma.

People are making guesses based on what they believe is best for the country and expect that ANC delegates would share their perspectives.

The first thing that should be accepted is that ANC factional battles are neither logical nor based on the country’s interests.

Worries about economic decline, higher taxes, higher costs of food and increasing debt are not part of the ANC leadership discourse. The fight is about power, control of the state, protection of interests and access to resources.

Corruption and radical economic transformation are proxy issues in the battle between the two main factions. They are South Africa’s equivalent of Trump’s border wall.

Predictions are being made based on the nominations process by ANC branches and the number of provinces supporting the two main contenders.

When the 5 240 delegates queue to vote next week, they are not obliged to stick to the mandates of their branches or provinces. There is no checking mechanism.

Many will vote according to the factions which they belong to, or they could be offered bribes.

In the case of Mpumalanga’s “unity” delegates, it seems they will vote for whoever their provincial leader, David Mabuza, instructs them to support.

This makes a farce of the ANC’s claim that the branches are the most powerful structures in the organisation.

Although President Jacob Zuma is not a candidate, the outcome is critical to his fate.

The decision of the High Court in Pretoria on Friday invalidating the appointment of Shaun Abrahams as national director of public prosecutions has upped the stakes.

The future of Zuma’s corruption charges depends on whether Abrahams stays watching telenovelas on an NPA plasma screen or whether the new ANC leadership is able to make capable appointments in the criminal justice system.

There is too much riding on the ANC elections, including the fate of the state capture network, for Zuma to leave it to chance. It means the projections analysts are making based on algorithms, extrapolations and polls could be wrong. They do not factor in who the delegates are, how they are selected to attend the conference, and what is in their heads and pockets when they vote.

Predicting the outcome is not a precise science and the results are bound to shock you.

It is best to brace for the fact that the election could produce a multifactional mix rather than a winner-takes-all slate as at the past two conferences.

The new ANC president could therefore be on a collision course with the other top officials, and the national executive committee could also remain bogged down by factional showdowns.

The reality is that there is nothing cut and dried about this race and there is not going to be a fairytale ending to the disastrous Zuma era.

What Obama said in his victory speech is also true for our country: that “all things are possible”. Sadly, based on the course of history of South Africa, there is a great propensity for all those things to be terrible.