A coup could never happen here. Or could it?
Political commentators often frame events with past occurrences in mind. Taking their cues from earlier trends, they identify patterns and reflect on mutations.
The Arab Spring, for example, was compared to the 1848 revolutions in
Europe. Similarly, the
Bavarian Soviet Republic of 1919 was linked to its St
Petersburg predecessor, and the domino-like collapses of communist regimes in Europe in 1989 were inextricably connected.
So it is hardly surprising that some commentators have raised the possibility of events in Zimbabwe influencing politics in South Africa. Is this a reasonable possibility?
We know that historically South Africa has not been immune to ideas from beyond its borders. US nativism in the 1920s had analogues in “segregationist” discourse, while “Garveyism” — a revitalising movement for blacks led by the Jamaican Marcus Garvey — influenced domestic struggles.
Intellectual and political currents migrate with relative ease, especially since populations have moved en masse and improved communications make it well-nigh impossible for a country to isolate itself.
Today, South Africa is tied to the so-called Washington consensus, with little room for manoeuvre. Ratings agencies are monitoring the country and their assessments are taken seriously at the highest level.
Even the “fallists” involved in recent campus turmoil used the discourse of US campuses. In an internet age in which geographical distance is of no consequence, the speed with which ideas travel is unprecedented and, in some instances, the lessons of violence are immediate and easy to assimilate.
And what about the lessons from Africa’s most recent coup d’état (however much the notion has been denied)? Will South Africans heed the lessons? Will our leaders and will the defence force, which at this stage appears to be removed from our heated political fray, heed those lessons?
Fortunately, as things stand, the ANC can be removed at the ballot box should voters wish it. Our democracy remains fully functioning. Elections are less that 18 months away. And within two weeks the ANC will elect a new president.
Any prospect of our soldiers taking to the streets is at this stage fantasy.
Democracy is privileged over military action.
In South Africa, the defence force is far less connected to domestic politics than has been the case in Zimbabwe. But could things change?
Perhaps the mood in the
SANDF may turn if looting and state capture continue. This is especially possible if Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma wins and fails to put the brakes on corruption. Then, we may well hear muttering in the barracks. Harare will not be forgotten.
Remember that it was the prospect of dynastic succession in Zimbabwe by way of Grace Mugabe, coupled with the firing of deputy president Emmerson Mnangagwa, that proved to be the last straw.
In South Africa, however, a Zimbabwe-style coup would not be as smooth and bloodless. Although President Jacob Zuma’s ratings may be low, he still has considerable support.
Unlike Mugabe’s Zimbabwe, we would be racked by conflict should the military intervene, and probably be plunged into chaos.
It is unlikely that the African Union and Southern African Development Community would oblige with a nudge and a wink to an obvious coup, as was the case in Zimbabwe. And unlike Zimbabwe, our Constitutional Court would not condone military action for political purposes.
For all that, it would be interesting to gauge the mood of our generals. Do we have a General Constantino Chiwenga? According to some reports, the Zimbabwe military chief was warned by Mugabe that going against Grace would cost him his life. Yet he went ahead.
One wonders if Zuma has been speaking of late to SANDF chief General Solly Shoke . . .
It was the prospect of dynastic succession that proved to be the last straw
Shain is emeritus professor in the department of historical studies at the University of Cape Town