Careful moves as the endgame begins
President Jacob Zuma is by now so tightly tied up in legal cases relating to his cavalier and miserable eight years in office as head of state that he cannot possibly meekly walk away should the new ANC leader, Cyril Ramaphosa, persuade his national executive committee to recall Zuma from the Union Buildings. Just like Zuma did to Thabo Mbeki. Somehow, Zuma has to fight, to say: “No, I won’t go.” Because once he does depart, those court cases swirling around him like the Harry Potter Dementors will suck the life out of him. If he goes now they will torment him for every day that he lives.
And yet it is impossible that he can remain. So stark are the divisions between Zuma and Ramaphosa that they cannot be contained in one party. Right now, Ramaphosa will be working on the ANC’s annual January 8 birthday statement. He delivers it in East London on January 13, and he’ll want to use it to point South Africa in confident new directions. Less than a month later, on February 8, the head of state, Jacob Zuma, is scheduled to open parliament with the state of the nation address. The idea is to recap on the successes of the past year and to map out plans for the new one.
The new NEC meets on January 10 and Zuma will be its subject. Imagine the mess if Ramaphosa is not able to lever Zuma out of office between then and February 8. On Friday, Zuma’s legal hole got even deeper when the Constitutional Court ruled that the National Assembly had not held him to account as required by the constitution.
So between January 10 and February 8, prepare for yet another bumpy South African ride courtesy of its dysfunctional ruling party. Ramaphosa has to give that opening address to parliament. If he cannot move Zuma by then, he will be seen as weak and ineffective.
He is neither. To win the ANC presidency he beat one of the most unpleasant political machines in the world. What he has to do now is act with the utmost ruthlessness and get the NEC to recall Zuma by the end of January at the latest.
He has a thin majority on the NEC, and even those not directly with him yet will realise that having Zuma take them into a general election in 2019 is a recipe for disaster. So Ramaphosa has momentum with him. He can see off Zuma. Resistance is futile however awful — for Zuma — the future might look.
Yet you will have noticed how eerily quiet things are on the news front. Ramaphosa is saying nothing. Zuma has bleated an old bleat about the courts being too powerful. And the courts spoke again on Friday. Something’s going on that we can’t see or hear.
It may well be the sound of Ramaphosa not being ruthless with Zuma. It may be the sound of a deal being made. And if it is, it isn’t necessarily only because Zuma has asked for one. It may be because Ramaphosa also wants one.
The power gap that arises when the ANC elects a new leader while its old one is still head of state is a serious problem for country and party. It destroyed Mbeki and it threatens to do the same now to Zuma. Ramaphosa does not want it happening to him when his time comes, so he will try hard not to humiliate Zuma.
I have no idea what an acceptable deal could look like. You drop all current charges against him but he has to testify to a judicial commission or a sort of truth commission about his role in state capture with the Guptas? If he tells the truth and returns any money ill-gotten, he walks. But if the commissioners don’t believe him, or if he just lies, they recommend he be prosecuted.
That might do it for a lot of Zuma supporters on the NEC. But Ramaphosa will also know that with each passing day their loyalty to Zuma fades a bit. It’s only natural. The fact is the two men are engaged in a game of chess. Ramaphosa has already taken Zuma’s queen and he is unquestionably in the stronger position.
But Zuma could lose his temper and tip the board over. Is there still time to act outside the constitution? The people whispering in his ears like medieval emissaries as he plots and plans must wish their man could clear the decks and assume powers to himself. Suspend the judges and ban the journalists. Block all social media. Have the army in the streets.
But there’s no point to that any more. Zuma has lost the one thing he needs to stay confidently in charge — he has lost his own party.