Goldilocks to hold sway in 2018, but with bulls, not bears
● Bulls will retain the upper hand in emerging markets next year, though some assets may face a bumpier ride than in 2017.
Bonds and equities in developing countries will continue to streak ahead, outpacing their developed-nation peers into next year, according to a Bloomberg survey of 20 investors, traders and strategists. However, currencies may struggle to stay in front.
And while the Federal Reserve’s actions will remain key in determining the fate of what has been the strongest equity rally for emerging-market stocks in eight years, geopolitical risks will be less of a focus as investors zero in on President Donald Trump and the outlook for the world’s second-largest economy: China.
“The environment for emerging markets was great in 2017 with the Goldilocks factors of economic growth and low inflation in industrialised countries,” said Hideo Shimomura, chief fund manager in Tokyo at Mitsubishi UFJ Kokusai Asset Management, which oversees the equivalent of $114-billion (about R1.4-trillion).
“The emerging-market rally we saw this year will probably extend into 2018, but after a period of strong growth and low inflation, some adjustment will be inevitable.”
Investor darlings in 2017 thanks to their high yields and buoyant growth prospects, emerging markets have weathered Trump’s protectionist rhetoric and a swathe of geopolitical brush fires — from the Middle East to the Korean peninsula.
But while stocks and currencies in developing countries are on track for their best year since 2009, investors may become more selective in 2018 as headwinds such as Fed tightening weaken the appeal of emerging markets.
Consistent with a survey in October, market watchers continue to see the Fed and Trump’s policy moves to be key for developing-country assets in the new year.
What happens with China — where authorities are waging a battle against debt and President Xi Jinping is cementing his power — has edged up in the rankings.
Mexico’s peso and bond market as well as Brazilian equities are among the most-favoured emerging-market assets, while Turkey’s assets ranked low given the country’s persistent political uncertainty.
The Turkish lira, on track to become one of the worst emerging-market currency performers this year, will remain in the doldrums in 2018.
The currency plunged to a record low as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan criticised the central bank in November, saying it was on the “wrong path” in tackling soaring inflation.
But in general, the stars will continue to align from a macroeconomic perspective, with global growth expected to be steady and inflation subdued, said Colin Harte, a London-based fund manager and strategist for multiasset solutions at BNP Paribas Asset Management, which oversaw the equivalent of $673-billion at the end of September.
“This Goldilocks environment will be one where central banks will continue to pursue accommodative monetary policy and follow their existing reaction functions,” he said. — Bloomberg