Time running out for Cyril to call Zuma’s bluff

If reports are accurate that President Jacob Zuma is seriously demanding that his former wife, Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, replace him as interim president until the 2019 general elections, and that his energy minister, David Mahlobo, remain in his position as conditions for his resignation — and I’ve heard them more than once — then he is in danger of losing his remaining dignity.

How far can a man fall? From a position of huge power one day to the point where, in order to protect himself from arrest and financial ruin, he turns the negotiations on an orderly transfer of state power from the outgoing leader to incoming leader into a farce that would rival the Marx Brothers for slapstick.

All the world knows why he wants Dlamini-Zuma and Mahlobo there — to look after him. Not the party and certainly not the country. It is pathetic and a measure of how politically inept he was, despite his once formidable tactical reputation, at calculating the race for the ANC leadership last year. He genuinely thought he’d nailed it; that Dlamini-Zuma would beat Cyril Ramaphosa. And then she didn’t. Big, major, momentous, mammoth, mistake for JZ.

It has left him scrambling for cover like a fisherman with a dozen lines in the water when it starts to hail. Those lines still have to be reeled in, though. There’s money at the end of them. Russian money, Gupta money, Durban money. He needs to get the lines in. Hurry, hurry . . . but there’s no time. The storm is getting worse.

And oh, the jail thing. Pretending you’re not scared of prison is one thing. Knowing, for sure, that you’re a central suspect in a massive criminal conspiracy to steal from your own country is quite another.

There will come a time when Zuma stands as an accused before a judge in a criminal trial. I cannot say when, but it is inevitable. What I do know is that the longer he stuffs around now, the worse that trial will one day be for him.

Make no mistake, his political protection is vaporising by the hour.

A debate, at least, on a recall by the ANC national executive committee meeting next weekend must be a possibility. After that, Ramaphosa, his January 8 statement (delivered yesterday) behind him and a wave of expectation, enthusiasm and intent following it (I write this column on a Friday) is off to represent the country in Davos.

He may even meet Donald Trump, who may even remember to get the name of our country right. My advice to Ramaphosa would be to avoid Trump at all costs. No chats and certainly no pictures.

Ramaphosa is also under the cosh.

Can he move Zuma or not? It’s a simple question. If Zuma opens parliament with a state of the nation address next month, it will count as a fairly significant Ramaphosa failure.

If Zuma’s finance minister, Malusi Gigaba, delivers a budget a few days after that, it will be another Ramaphosa failure.

Flailing about, Zuma is making dust, and until we hear something directly to the contrary it is not unreasonable to assume that Ramaphosa can’t see through it or, if he can, he can’t stop it.

So JZ creates a judicial commission into state capture on Thuli Madonsela’s terms; in his mind an inquiry will sit for a year at least. There’s a lot of hard evidence to get through.

That means that even if Ramaphosa gets to appoint a new NPA head, as directed by the courts and immediately appealed by Zuma, the NPA can’t do much about state capture until Deputy Chief Justice Ray Zondo is finished with the inquiry.

Or so he thinks. You see, the Zuma camp genuinely believes that Ramaphosa is a coward, that he doesn’t have the cojones to stand up to Zuma, to test his power.

The things the Zuma camp says about Ramaphosa behind his back are staggering. Zuma was determined that after Dlamini-Zuma had won the ANC leadership election, Ramaphosa would never hold a position in the party again. They don’t merely hate him, they despise him.

So the longer Ramaphosa takes to remove the head from the snake, the more the notion of his weakness, his cowardice, will find crevices in which to settle. It is a dangerous time for the new leader. He needs, probably before he goes to Davos and certainly before parliament opens in the second week of February, to slay the beast.

Zuma, Cyril, is bluffing. Call it.