The heat is on as Day Zero looms
Heat, poor rain sound a warning, but experts disagree over risk
● For the second time in just under four years, South Africa and the Southern African Development Community are faced with drought, just two years after the devastation wrought by the 2015-16 drought, the region’s worst in nearly 40 years.
Extremely high temperatures and poor rainfall have sounded alarm bells in the region. Already, the severity of the drought is being felt in the Western Cape.
There, key industries such as wine and fruit production and tourism are under strain because of water shortages. Parts of the Eastern Cape, including Port Elizabeth, have also been affected.
Should the dry spell persist, agriculture economists warn, it would threaten summer crops planted this season.
Climate experts, however, are divided over what the dry spell across the northern parts of the country means for the maize belt.
Some are of the view that the dry spell in the first weeks of January was normal and there is no drought.
Peter Johnston, a climate scientist at the University of Cape Town, said the extended dry spell could be reversed by at least two weeks of good rains.
“I haven’t heard of crop ruin from farmers at this stage — that their maize crop is a write-off. This would have been reflected in market prices, which we would have seen adjusting. But we haven’t seen market prices skyrocket.”
Weather service
The South African Weather Service has a forecast of fairly normal seasonal rainfall for the summer, the period in which maize is grown. South Africa’s average rainfall amounts to 495mm, compared to a global annual average of more than 1 000mm.
But Michelle Mokone, an agricultural economist at Grain SA, said crops were struggling because of high temperatures and poor rainfall, with farmers in some parts of the country yet to plant due to the extreme dryness.
“Therefore, follow-up rain is critical at this stage and if drought conditions persist, it is likely that the region could definitely sit with lower planted area to maize and sunflower and other summer crops such as soya bean, essentially leading to a decline in production,” she said.
“It is not yet known how severe it could get as the planting window for maize just closed, but it’s highly likely that production would decline should dryness continue.”
South Africa is the continent’s largest maize producer and reaped a 16.41 million ton harvest last season, its largest crop in nearly four decades.
The 2015-16 drought was due to the El Niño weather phenomenon. El Niño conditions occur when the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean surface temperature is substantially warmer than usual.
El Niño and La Niña — the latter being the opposite weather pattern — tend to develop between April and June and reach their maximum strength between December and February. They usually persist for nine to 12 months, occasionally for up to two years, and recur every two to seven years.
About 40 million people in Southern Africa were left vulnerable by the last drought, according to the World Food Programme. Livestock was decimated, crops wilted and widespread water shortages occurred.
In Asia, at least 11 countries, among them India, Pakistan and Afghanistan, were affected by El Niño in the 2015-16 farming season and experienced prolonged droughts, water shortages, lean agricultural seasons and food shortages.
The Climate Change Vulnerability Index for 2016 produced by Verisk Maplecroft, a risk advisory firm, scored Asia at 5.68 and Africa at 4.12 on a risk index of 1 to 10. The lower the score the greater the vulnerability to climate change.
Wessel Lemmer, senior agricultural economist at Absa, said although poor rainfall patterns were being experienced, there was no immediate threat of food insecurity for South Africa and SADC.
“South Africa’s carry-out at the end of the current marketing year was estimated at 3.1 million tons of white maize and 1.5 million tons of yellow maize.
“Zambia also has a significant carryout. Therefore the risk of food insecurity is limited for SADC.”
Early indications suggest that maize production will decline this season, as a direct consequence of the dry weather.
According to the Agricultural Business Chamber, the land under tillage for maize has declined this season to about 2.47 million hectares — down 6% compared to the 2016-17 season.
Of the land under tillage, about 57% is for white maize and 43% for yellow maize. South Africa consumes 6.3 million tons of white maize a year and 4.3 million tons of yellow maize.
Wandile Sihlobo, head of research at the chamber, said although the planting season had begun on an “optimistic note”, the picture of South Africa’s maize crop prospects was now “somewhat mixed”.
He said the eastern regions of the country, which predominantly produced yellow maize, were generally in good condition,
I haven’t heard of crop ruin from farmers at this stage — that their maize crop is a write-off Peter Johnston University of Cape Town climate scientist
with a fair amount of soil moisture.
“Meanwhile, the western regions of the country, which largely produce white maize, were unable to meet their planting intentions due to persistent dry and warm conditions. Additionally, the crop in areas that managed to plant is experiencing heat stress,” Sihlobo said.
The market price of maize has been relatively subdued, hovering near the R2 000/ton mark.
Mokone said South Africa’s large maize stocks, which would be carried over into the new season, would keep prices under pressure.
“This is evident in current maize prices, which remain under pressure despite the unfavourable weather conditions. US corn prices carry the same trend as local prices, pressured by expected large global maize stocks due to the 2017-18 bumper season,” she said.
Although South Africa’s bumper maize crop last season will be a buffer against a drought in the short to medium term, the shifting weather patterns due to climate change continue to pose a risk to food production.
“Climate change doesn’t happen in one day,” said Johnston.
“We don’t know what will happen to rainfall. Temperatures are increasing.” On average, temperatures in SADC were expected to rise by 2°C.
The UN’s Framework Convention on Climate Change has said that by 2030 developing countries will require between $28-billion (R340-billion) and $67-billion in funds to enable them to adapt to climate change.
Lemmer said maize producers in South Africa had adapted to produce maize in uncertain climatic conditions.
Tough producers
“We have tough producers who can face the production and price risks they are confronted with,” he said. “They manage soil moisture efficiently through conservation tillage and the implementation of the latest technologies . . . The knowledge and expertise of our producers are a strategic asset to combat the negative impact of climate change.”