AWARDS
Tymon Smith’s Oscars predictions
After several years of criticism of its racial politics, the Academy has made a selection of nominees for this year’s awards ceremony that seeks to provide some redress to #OscarsSoWhite in the age of #MeToo. With Hollywood’s most anticipated and celebrated awards due to be announced tonight, here’s my take on who will win, who could upset the actor cart and who, in a perfect world, really deserves the nod.
BEST PICTURE
The Nominees Call Me by Your Name, Darkest Hour, Dunkirk, Get Out, Lady Bird, Phantom Thread, The Post, The Shape of Water, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. Who Will Win The Shape of Water. Because it’s already won everything else in spite of its lack of depth. Who Could Win Get Out. Jordan Peele’s race-horror debut is just one of the sharpest and most relevant genre films in ages. Who Should Win Lady Bird. Greta Gerwig’s debut is a small-scale but intelligent, hilarious and a deeply felt early millennium coming-of-age tribute to her home town of Sacramento.
BEST DIRECTOR
The Nominees Christopher Nolan
(Dunkirk), Jordan Peele (Get Out), Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird), Paul Thomas Anderson (Phantom Thread), Guillermo del Toro (The Shape of Water).
Who Will Win Del Toro.
He’s made some intriguing films and has a singular ability for incorporating his phantasmagorical visual sensibilities into moving fables but this is not his best film.
Who Could Win Nolan.
His tightly wound and suspenseful account of the heroic British nationalist moment of World War 2 is a masterclass in how to throw an audience into the thick of the action and keep them on the edge of their seats without reverting to unnecessary over explanation. Who Should Win Anderson.
The most singularly gifted American director of his generation has been nominated six times without success and this restrained, elegant tribute to classic British cinema and the acting talents of Daniel Day-Lewis should be duly rewarded in a perfect world.
BEST LEAD ACTOR
The Nominees Timothée Chalamet (Call Me by Your Name), Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread), Daniel Kaluuya (Get Out), Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour), Denzel
Washington (Roman J. Israel, Esq.).
Who Will Win Oldman.
One of the most dedicated and hardestworking actors looks certain to earn his long-awaited Academy recognition this year for his portrayal of Winston Churchill.
Who Could Win Day-Lewis.
In the role of British fashion designer Reynolds Woodcock, what the actor has said is his final screen performance. Who Should Win Chalamet.
He gives the year’s most nuanced, multilingual and complex performance.
LEAD ACTRESS
The Nominees Sally Hawkins (The Shape of
Water), Frances McDormand (Three
Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri),
Margot Robbie (I, Tonya), Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird), Meryl Streep (The Post).
Who Will Win McDormand.
For her gritty and determined performance as a grieving mother seeking justice for her murdered daughter.
Who Could Win Hawkins.
For her moving and completely silent performance as the ingénue heroine.
Who Should Win Robbie.
For her tough-as-nails, tongue-in-cheek turn as disgraced skater Tonya Harding.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
The Nominees Willem Dafoe (The
Florida Project), Woody Harrelson (Three Billboards) , Richard Jenkins (The Shape of Water), Christopher Plummer (All the Money in the World), Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards). Who Will Win Rockwell.
For his turn as a small-town racist cop in search of redemption.
Who Could Win Dafoe.
For a very empathetic, humane and unexpectedly not so odd-ball turn as a Florida motel manager.
Who Should Win Dafoe.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
The Nominees Mary J. Blige (Mudbound),
Allison Janney (I, Tonya), Lesley Manville (Phantom Thread), Laurie Metcalf (Lady
Bird), Octavia Spencer (The Shape of Water).
Who Will Win Janney.
For her tough-love, chain-smoking mother in I, Tonya. Who Could Win Metcalf.
For her different but equally difficult mother in Lady Bird. Who Should Win Janney