He won’t ride off into the sunset
Internally divided and at odds with its opposition partners, the DA is discovering that without Zuma to blame, it is far less of a sure thing
● Mmusi Maimane goes to the DA’s elective congress assured of re-election as the party’s federal leader — but could the gathering nonetheless mark the beginning of the end for him?
The long honeymoon period since his election in May 2015 as the first black DA leader has come to a screeching halt, with signs of growing unhappiness in party ranks with Maimane’s performance.
That he is likely to be re-elected unopposed when party delegates gather in Gauteng next month has more to do with his critics believing they do not yet have a candidate sufficiently popular within the ranks to take him on than with his abilities as a leader.
Criticism of him in the DA ranges from his perceived lack of decisiveness when dealing with internal problems to his inability to stamp his authority as the leader of the opposition in parliament.
The opposition has been weakened by the political changes within the ANC and by ideological differences in the opposition benches.
The removal of president Jacob Zuma dealt a major blow to the opposition’s ambition to wrest power from the ANC in next year’s election.
President Cyril Ramaphosa has shown willingness to do all the right things, winning over many South Africans who would have ditched the ANC in next year’s polls had the status quo remained.
The clean-up at Eskom, the removal of the Gupta stooges from the cabinet and the suspension of South African Revenue Service commissioner Tom Moyane have restored public confidence in the party.
To add salt to Maimane’s wounds, his political partner Julius Malema, who Maimane was relying on to dislodge the ANC, seems to be under the Ramaphosa spell. Malema’s intention to remove Nelson Mandela Bay mayor Athol Trollip will have serious consequences for Johannesburg and Tshwane, as well as for the two parties’ working relationship. And Maimane’s predicament does not end there.
His party’s jewel, the City of Cape Town, is marred by instability as a result of attempts to remove mayor Patricia de Lille. De Lille embarrassed Maimane and his cohorts when she survived a motion of no confidence sponsored by her own party recently.
Maimane will eventually succeed in removing De Lille — expelling her if he must — but he may live to regret it, given that she enjoys significant support, especially in the coloured community.
Whatever De Lille decides to do after her removal, she is bound to take with her a huge chunk of support.
It is not only De Lille who is giving Maimane sleepless nights.
There seems to be a growing gap between Maimane and the so-called “black caucus” in the party.
Two of the group’s “prominent members”, Gauteng MPLs Makashule Gana and Khume Ramulifho, have proposed that the party amend its constitution to give Maimane a deputy.
Maimane’s rejection of the proposal has exposed him as a paranoid leader who is fearful of a possible internal challenge to his leadership.
Asked by journalists what he thought of the proposal, he said: “Don’t create too many centres of power because you can’t even define what the deputy will be doing.”
The sponsors of the motion say they want to create the position of a deputy so that the party has more leaders with a public profile, to assist the party during election campaigns so that the leader is not overstretched, among many other reasons.
However, Maimane is not sold on the idea as he sees it as part of a wider succession plot that may result in his deputy challenging his leadership.
Those around him believe that although his detractors will not field a candidate in the upcoming congress, there is a plot to prepare the ground for Maimane’s successor.
Hence the suspicion around the nomination of Tshwane mayor Solly Msimanga to challenge Trollip for the position of federal chairman.
Msimanga has built quite a political profile since taking over the Tshwane municipality in two years ago. Even his political opponents, the ANC-led Gauteng government, have had no fundamental differences with his administration.
Premier David Makhura’s government has a far better working relationship with Msimanga than it had with its comrade Sputla Ramokgopa, after the former Tshwane mayor defected to the Zuma camp.
Maimane’s backers fear that those who are pushing for the deputy leader post want to position Msimanga as an obvious successor to the DA leader.
Maimane is approaching what promises to be his most difficult election since he took over the party leadership in 2015.
With Zuma out of the picture, he will have to go beyond pointing fingers at the ANC and present a convincing manifesto and a solid plan to win the hearts and minds of South African voters.
With Ramaphosa making all the right noises, the DA’s prospects of growing its votes in the next general election fade every time South Africa’s new president opens his mouth.
Which may explain why Maimane has started a campaign attacking Makhura for his government’s failure to prevent the Life Esidimeni tragedy.
The motion of no confidence against Makhura will not succeed as the ANC in the Gauteng legislature is solidly behind its premier.
And the mud Maimane is throwing might not stick as Makhura’s government has taken full responsibility. All the individuals cited by former deputy chief justice Dikgang Moseneke have already left government, including former health MEC Qedani Mahlangu.
But expect Maimane to milk the Esidimeni tragedy for all it’s worth as he launches an election campaign against a re-energised governing party. And don’t be surprised if he digs up the Marikana ghosts to paint Ramaphosa as a greedy businessman.
Maimane is well aware that, should his party perform below par next year, the campaign to get rid of him will gear up soon after the announcement of the election results.