Impact of drought on water security
Dams have risen and new sources are being found, but our habits must change
Day Zero may have been sidestepped in the Western Cape this year, but Water and Sanitation Minister Gugile Nkwinti says the impact of the drought is “far from over” — and that water security will be a concern for decades to come.
With collaboration between consumers and the government, the water scarcity issue needs to be addressed urgently.
“Water security is one of the biggest challenges facing South Africa and the world. It presents a profound challenge to our social wellbeing and our economic growth,” says Nkwinti.
While dam levels are especially low in the Western Cape, the country as a whole is facing a water scarcity crisis. The world’s population is expected to increase from
7.6 billion in 2017 to 10 billion people in 2050. The UN estimates that half this anticipated growth will be in Africa and Asia. This means that those most in need of water will be in developing or emerging economies.
In South Africa, consistent drought since 2014 has put major stress on our water supply systems, says Nkwinti.
The geographical region is generally water scarce, but concern around consumption and conservation of water has come to the fore due to the recent severe drought.
“The impact of this drought on water supplies was the worst since 1983-84, when our national storage levels dropped to the lowest levels on record, and in the Western Cape in particular we see continually decreasing dam levels as we contend with the worst drought in living memory, a
“The impact of this drought on water supplies was the worst since 1983-84, when our national storage levels dropped to the lowest levels on record”
drought which in statistical terms would be referred to as a one-in-400-year drought return period,” he says.
The minister adds that the recent El Niño climate change effect contributed markedly to the drought and was expected to be strong (when compared with the 1997-98 El Niño). But it was neither expected to be as intense as it was, nor that the rainfall would be the lowest recorded in more than 112 years (since 1904).
But what are the solutions?
“Climate scientists and weather forecasters continue to recommend a ‘conservative’ planning approach wherever possible in implementing drought-mitigation projects,” says Nkwinti.
“The winter rainfall area is of grave concern, where our dams are on average at the lowest level recorded in the last 40 years. Top climate specialists have reached consensus that the global simulations indicate a reduction of rainfall in the winter rainfall area over the next 30 to 40 years,” he says.
The minister reiterates that if these predictions are correct — and there is no reason to doubt this body of scientists — “we need to adapt our planning for water provision and change the ways in which we use water”.
Residents of the Western Cape have been faced with severe water restrictions, with impacts on sanitation and health.
“The impact of the drought is far from over and even with a normal season it will take a number of years for the systems to stabilise to acceptable levels,” says Nkwinti.
On May 15, the total capacity of the 215 major dams, which are measured on a weekly basis, was 72.7%, which is better than the levels at the same time last year when the capacity was 54%.