Peter Bruce
Ramaphosa’s way of doing nothing
OK, so here comes another commission of inquiry. This time it’s into the Public Investment Corporation (PIC). Cue groans from the public, a few cheers. President Cyril Ramaphosa gets insulted again for “not doing anything”. But I'm afraid this is the way of it. And, when you think about it, it’s inspired. You may consider Ramaphosa insipid and weak, but stand back a bit and take stock about what he’s doing. The Zondo and Nugent commissions, into state capture and the mismanagement at the South African Revenue Service, are beginning to lay bare the bones of Jacob Zuma’s destruction of the state.
Retired Judge Robert Nugent perhaps has the best start, and the most experience. He has already reached the point where he is able to advise Ramaphosa to sack suspended Sars commissioner Tom Moyane without a moment’s more hesitation. Now he is thinking about a parallel inquiry into the so-called “rogue unit” story at Sars, which led to the forced departures of some of its best managers.
Deputy Chief Justice Raymond Zondo is just beginning. His brief is so wide it is hard to know where it might all end. But the fact is that as more facts come out, the lighter I feel on my feet. And where I have assumed wrongly, I find I’m released by the truth I’m hearing. And though some of this is frightening people away from SA, it just has to be in our long-term benefit.
Yes, I wish there was already a new national director of public prosecutions in place of Shaun Abrahams. But Ramaphosa has (again) taken the cautionary route, assembling, hastily, a panel to recommend candidates for the job before his 90-day deadline for the appointment runs out next month.
And, yes, when you look at the mandate for the PIC inquiry, it’s exhaustive (though not exhaustive enough for some commentators). Did any PIC director or employee use privileges or information to improperly benefit another person; what unauthorised disclosures could have been made which might have damaged the PIC? And so on. And it’s a powerful bench, led by justice Lex Mpati, former Reserve Bank governor Gill Marcus and business leader and asset manager Emmanuel Lediga.
They have to report to Ramaphosa by April 15 2019. Keep that date in mind, because for all that we might want to see arrests and handcuffs, Ramaphosa has another agenda. He has to win next year’s general election by a margin significant enough to secure him at least one full term, and preferably two. As the very thoughtful electoral analyst Dawie Scholtz says of Ramaphosa: “He picks the optimal electoral position every time.”
I first picked up that observation about four months ago. It is still right on the button. So as we get frustrated with Ramaphosa, remember what he is trying to do. It is to build the strongest possible case against the proZuma elements still in his own ANC and, simultaneously, to disrupt the inevitable narratives from the DA and the EFF that will still be accusing him of having indulged state capture while deputy to Zuma.
Already the polls show Ramaphosa’s approval ratings to be well ahead of his own party’s. I’ll wager the election happens after that April 15 deadline next year.
By the time we go to the polls, the Sars inquiry will be done and Moyane gone. There’ll be a new head at the National Prosecuting Authority. Arrests will have been made and charges laid. There’ll be a new man running the PIC and finance minister Tito Mboweni (barring any slips in the mini-budget this week) will have invigorated our fiscal trajectory.
In a way, Ramaphosa’s approach is already working. The more time you take, the more time there is for your opponents to make mistakes. The report into the vulgar looting of VBS Mutual Bank has left the EFF leadership badly exposed. The fact that EFF deputy leader Floyd Shivambu’s brother received, directly or indirectly, more than R16m from a bank supposedly there to serve the very poor, whom the EFF claims to hold to its heart, will hurt the party.
This past week, after a good run in SRC elections on minor campuses, the EFF was thumped by the ANC at Wits in Johannesburg.
It may have had nothing to do with the VBS debacle but it would have given the ANC, and Ramaphosa particularly, some genuine cheer. Not just because the EFF lost but because the VBS report will have hurt Limpopo ANC leaders trying to force Ramaphosa into an alliance with the EFF. The police will be making calls on VBS shortly. Ramaphosa may just be able to do this on his own.