How to stop megacities becoming megadisasters
Populations of cities in emerging markets will swell in the next decade, and these megametropolises are increasingly vulnerable to collapse if they can’t keep pace with the needs of a rising number of residents and the companies that employ them.
Megacities, of which there are 33, are urban areas that have more than 10-million people. Euromonitor recently identified a further six cities that may achieve this status by 2030. Two are in Africa: Dar es Salaam in Tanzania, and Luanda in Angola, where the population is expected to rise 60% by 2030.
These megacities offer opportunities for business as they concentrate income and demand for services, Euromonitor says.
But it does not automatically follow that they will yield these benefits. Already, many cities are not coping. Nigeria loses 5% of
GDP from delays at its ports. At Apapa port in Lagos, trucks can queue for two weeks to deliver or collect cargo, says Bloomberg.
The World Economic Forum says Lagos’s population is predicted to rise “by an astonishing 77 people every hour between 2010 and 2030, according to UN data, making it the fastest-growing city in Africa”.
Johannesburg and Pretoria are far from having megacity status, but they face similar problems. Electronic Toll Collection warned this week that commuters between the two cities will face a six-hour commute (at an average speed of 10km/h) by 2037 if no new roads are built.
Unskilled workers will continue to bear the brunt of the dysfunction unless cities invest in new urban design. Many wonder how cities can scale up to provide the infrastructure for large numbers of people. Perhaps they should scale down by planning for interconnected villages within them, with services in walking or cycling distance from people’s homes.
Many already work from home. But what about more, smaller schools that share teachers by enabling them to teach more than one class at one school simultaneously via an online broadcast?
Already South African banks and retailers are testing smaller outlets in neighbourhood centres.
In Rwanda, medical supplies are delivered to rural areas by drone. Could small packages not be delivered within cities in the same manner?
Will car ownership be unnecessary? Many cities currently offer car-sharing through an app that enables you to find an available car parked close to your location.
But even with smart city planning there will be pressing problems. Many cities already face rising sea levels and an increasing scarcity of fresh water. And the more concentrated a country’s GDP is in one location, like a megacity, the more profound is the impact of a major weather event. The 2018 Climate Vulnerability Index said 47% of Africa’s GDP would be at “extreme risk” from climate change by 2023.
So, without substantial climate change mitigation measures, megacities could become megadisasters.
Perhaps cities should scale down by planning for interconnected villages within them