ANC may lose KZN next year, says poll

● The ANC will have to pull a rabbit out of a hat if it is to hold on to power in KwaZuluNatal in next year’s national and provincial elections.

According to a recent study, the ANC stands to lose its majority in the province in next year’s elections — and could easily be toppled by an IFP-DA coalition.

A Social Research Foundation (SRF) poll sampling 2,434 KwaZulu-Natal residents estimates the ANC will secure 40% of the provincial vote if 66% of the electorate turns out to cast its ballot.

The IFP is likely to garner 26%, the DA 18% and the EFF 8% of the vote.

This means a coalition between the DA and the IFP, amounting to 44%, could topple the ANC.

The poll further suggests that things could become even more disastrous for the ruling party if voter turnout drops to 50%, as the party would then be able to secure only 36% of the vote.

If the study is correct, the ANC could lose both Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal to coalitions — an outcome that would damage its national footing.

The party may need to rope in former president Jacob Zuma — who remains the most popular leader in the province — to stand a chance of retaining KwaZulu-Natal.

Zuma is polling at 63% among all races in the province — almost double the 31% favourability rating enjoyed by President Cyril Ramaphosa.

Zuma, the poll suggests, is even more popular among Zulu speakers, with a 77% endorsement, compared with Ramaphosa’s 34%.

Dr Frans Cronje of the SRF said the ANC found itself between a rock and a hard place.

“The ANC has a problem because its most popular leader in KZN is also the individual the party leadership is — nominally, at least — pursuing or attempting to prosecute and isolate.

“And it was really only when Mr Zuma came to power in KZN that a solid majority of the Natal vote shifted to the ANC. Since his departure, we’ve seen a significant share of the Natal vote slip away from the ANC,” he said.

However, Zuma was less popular in urban areas such as Gauteng, where the ANC could lose support if they roped him in to save KwaZulu-Natal.

Another challenge for the ANC in the province was that the IFP was likely to gain sympathy support after the death of its former leader Mangosuthu Buthelezi.