Developed countries must step up to the climate plate

The COP28 climate summit, which ended in Dubai this week with a landmark deal, signalled “the beginning of the end of the fossil-fuel era”. But scientists warn it lacks the ambition and urgency needed to stop the planet from overheating beyond the safety threshold of 1.5°C (above pre-industrial levels). Inevitably, the “UAE consensus” was a compromise between what two-thirds of the world wanted — to “phase out” oil, coal and gas — and the oil-rich and other states, which blocked it. The consensus text allows countries to take their time in the “transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems in a just, orderly and equitable manner, accelerating action in this critical decade”.

The South African government commended the deal for balancing “mitigation, adaptation and means of implementation”. But small-island developing states — among the most vulnerable to climate-change — described it as having a “litany of loopholes”.

South Africa prioritised adaptation (preparing countries for climate shocks), yet progress towards this goal was limited, with one expert saying adaptation — overlooked by and lacking commitment from developed countries — was the “net victim of COP28”.

So what’s next? Now that the first phase of the global stocktake (evaluating progress towards the 1.5°C target) has been completed at COP28, every country must prepare for the next crucial step: working out how to rapidly cut harmful emissions before the 2025 summit, when they will submit their “nationally determined contributions”.

The global south is at increasing risk of catastrophic climate damage without commitments to finance adaptation and support, as well as an operational loss and damage fund. The $85bn (about R1.6-trillion) raised at COP28 for climate action is not enough; trillions of dollars are needed.

Climate summits are full of promises and plans which will fail without money. For those who claim the UAE consensus as a win, it will be a pyrrhic victory if the world goes up in flames because the developed world failed to support climate action and justice in the global south before it was too late.