New Arab powerhouses know ‘it’s the economy’
Many of the rising Arab economies, such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, have been relatively silent on the war in Gaza as they put their economic interests, their political influence and their countries’ stability at the forefront of their diplomatic stance regarding the conflict.
The three countries are at the centre of a new Middle East, in which they are surging ahead of their neighbours economically, in the same way the East Asian “miracle” economies of Singapore, Taiwan and South Korea rose a generation ago.
All three countries have prioritised building strong, competitive and diversified economies as a way to strengthen their global power, as the East Asians did after World War 2. This is in sharp contrast to the traditional African and Middle East post-colonial approach of shouting anti-imperialist slogans, building large armies and harping on the colonial past.
Saudi Arabia has been working towards the normalisation of relations with Israel. It has set out conditions, such as securing a defence pact with the US which would reduce restrictions on US arms sales to the country; US assistance to develop its own civilian nuclear programme; and “progress” towards the creation of a Palestinian state. The country has evidently been cautious, not wanting to be seen to offend the US or be overly critical of Israel.
The UAE has in the last few years forged a strong independent foreign policy, prioritising its economic interests over religious or Arab communal interests. The UAE and Israel signed an agreement on August 13, 2020, called the Abraham Accords, which normalised relations between the two countries. Qatar and Bahrain also signed the Abraham Accords, establishing diplomatic ties with Israel. The Arab signatories to the accords make up the Gulf Co-operation Council.
Soon after signing the accords, the UAE established telephone links with Israel, and inaugurated direct commercial flights and cargo ship transport between the countries.
Qatar has positioned itself as a key regional partner to the US. Before the current Gaza conflict it announced that it is not in “a war with Israel”. It has taken up a role as a mediator in regional conflicts, including that between Israel and the Palestinians, and has negotiated ceasefires between the two sides. It also maintains relations with Hamas.
The US state department recently defended Qatar’s role as a mediator between Israel and Hamas after the country played a leading role negotiating a hostage release deal between the two. It also facilitated a prisoner swap deal between Iran and the US.
Last year, Qatar’s Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani said in a speech in Singapore that his country’s foreign policy is based “on [its] own assessment, on [its] own evaluation”, meaning a position not based on pan-Arab communal or Muslim interests. Al-Thani described Qatar as “a small state in a turbulent neighbourhood”, saying the country’s non-aligned position enabled it “to open reliable channels of communication between warring nations, resulting in vital ceasefires, dialogues and peace and security arrangements”.
All three Arab states are now regarded as developed countries, and have achieved global political influence, which comes with increased economic industrialisation. They have left regional neighbours such as Syria, Iraq and Lebanon behind.
Japan, South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan, the “Asian tigers” who first built strong economies, were the first post-war developing countries who understood this important power principle. China realised this after the Cultural Revolution, when it shifted to building a competitive economy based on achieving high economic growth rates, a prerequisite for global political power.
Saudi Arabia, now the largest economy in the Middle East, is one of 18 countries in the world with a gross domestic product greater than $1-trillion (about R19-trillion). The UAE’s economy is the second largest in the Middle East, with a GDP of $415bn in 2023. In terms of GDP per capita, Qatar is among the top 10 economies in the world.
Many developing and African countries unsuccessfully try to secure global political influence without strengthening their domestic economies, not realising the fundamental post-World War 2 principle that economic power brings political power for smaller nations — not the other way around.