Ethiopia is a good strategic fit for Brics

When Jim O’Neill, the former Goldman Sachs economist, coined the term Bric (Brazil, Russia, India, China) in 2001 to indicate the rising importance of Global South countries with huge populations and significant economic potential, it is fair to say he did not have Ethiopia in mind. Though it was one of the most populous countries in Africa with 67million people at the time, its GDP was a mere $8.2bn with a paltry GDP per capita of $122 making it one of the poorest countries in the world. Fast forward 23 years and Ethiopia has officially joined the Brics group.

At 129-million people, Ethiopia’s population has almost doubled since 2001, which has boosted its market potential. The country has enjoyed tremendous economic growth over the past two decades with its GDP now standing at $127bn. The economic growth rate, one of the highest in Africa, far outstripped its population growth rate, which has helped in alleviating widespread poverty.

While Ethiopia has the smallest economy among the 10 Brics members, its potential is huge. Even as it struggles with political instability, Ethiopia is forecast to be one of the world’s 10 best performing economies in 2024 with a growth rate of 6.2%. Its estimated 2023 growth rate was 6.1% according to International Monetary Fund (IMF) data.

This economic potential would have counted in Ethiopia’s favour when its application for Brics membership came up for consideration among 40 other suitors last August. Boasting the largest airline in Africa, Ethiopian Airlines, the country serves as the gateway and logistics hub for the continent. With adequate investments it will play a critical role in facilitating the movement of goods and people in line with the Brics South-South cooperation principle.

Ethiopia’s joining of Brics as an official member is a major diplomatic victory for the embattled Horn of Africa powerhouse. The country endured a brutal two-year civil war between government forces and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) from 2020 to 2022. The war reportedly claimed more than 600,000 lives and set the country back billions of dollars in infrastructure damage.

The government’s handling of the war invited criticism from Ethiopia’s longtime allies, the US and EU, which froze aid flows as they accused the government of wanton abuse of human rights. Washington went further by imposing targeted sanctions on individuals and entities alleged to be aiding and abetting human rights violations. Ethiopia was also removed from the US Africa Growth & Opportunity Act (Agoa) in 2022, which stripped Ethiopian enterprises of duty-free access to the US market. Agoa supported more than half Ethiopia’s exports to the US, making its removal a major blow.

The Ethiopian government criticised the US sanctions as a violation of its sovereignty and interference in the country’s internal affairs. Thus, the aggregate impact of the civil war, the withdrawal of Western budget support, the lingering effects of the Covid pandemic and the disruption caused by the Russia-Ukraine war, was a dampened economy and an isolated government. The country also defaulted on its Eurobond instalment in December 2023 which was a manifestation of the depth of its troubles.

It is no wonder that Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed vigorously pursued Brics membership to counteract Western isolation and seek economic salvation from members and institutions such as the New Development Bank and the Contingency Reserve Arrangement. But it is not just the economic benefits that Ethiopia is eyeing by joining Brics. The country is also seeking global legitimacy and support for its territorial integrity as it is affected by secessionist and nationalist insurgencies in various regions, including Amhara, Oromo, the Ogaden and Tigray.

To stamp out these insurgencies, it would need the diplomatic and security support of Brics countries, especially the permanent UN Security Council members China and Russia. Addis Ababa will also be hoping that the group will facilitate its negotiations with fellow member Egypt, and Sudan, on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, whose construction led to a diplomatic rift with Cairo and Khartoum, who fear the dam may jeopardise their water supply from the Nile river.

Ethiopia’s ascension to Brics captures the group’s metamorphosis from a purely pragmatic economic cooperation arrangement as first conceived by O’Neill to a more comprehensive arrangement embracing symbolism, ideology and representation. Few countries fit this new orientation better than Ethiopia. As the diplomatic capital of Africa carrying the prestige of hosting the headquarters of the AU in Addis Ababa Ethiopia is an acceptable African representative and spokesperson. The country’s 170-year history as a modern state is a record of successful resistance against colonialism and of being a founding member of the League of Nations and the UN as one of the representatives of the Global South.

Ethiopia has also been at the forefront of advancing the causes of the Global South and African countries as demonstrated by its founding role in such organisations as the Non-Aligned Movement in 1961 and the Organisation of African Unity in 1963. Hence, Ethiopia is one of the oldest converts of the gospel of South-South co-operation and a just global order that underpins the ethos of Brics.

In addition to its historical prestige, Ethiopia’s geostrategic value would have added to its lustre as a prospective Brics member. It is the largest state in the troubled Horn of Africa region and the greater Red Sea basin, where conflict, terrorism and piracy are endemic. It has played a critical role in counter-terrorism efforts and promoting peace and stability through sending peacekeeping troops to Sudan and Somalia.

A sustainable and stable security architecture in the Red Sea basin, which is vital for the global economy and stability, cannot be achieved without Ethiopia. Having Ethiopia in the Brics fold is not a mistake, it is a strategic calculation that will enhance the group’s influence not only in Africa but in the Middle East as well.

The Horn of Africa powerhouse will enhance the group’s influence not only in Africa but in the Middle East