Zim opposition’s choice: submit or fight

GLOBAL Spotlight

ZIMBABWE’S new political era leaves the opposition with a tough choice: work with Zanu-pf as part of a government of national unity (GNU) to rebuild the economy and reform governance, or remain independent and build its structures for the elections next year.

It is not yet clear whether

President Emmerson Mnangagwa will attempt to forge a GNU. But there is a sizeable contingent of Zanupf’s central committee who, at its meeting where Mugabe was recalled, adamantly opposed jumping into bed with the opposition.

When Tendai Biti spoke in

Sandton last week about 90% of Zimbaweans being unemployed and 80% living below the poverty line, the prospect of a unity government to get the economy back on its feet was tempting.

It would also probably be the option South Africa would prefer, given that it prioritises political and economic stability for its northern neighbour.

Joining forces with Zanu-pf again will come at a significant political cost to the opposition. History is always instructive and the opposition needs to consider the political strategy of Zanu-pf since independence – to devastate and terrorise the opposition, then subsume it.

As Welshman Ncube told me this week, Zanu-pf has never behaved as a democratic political party, but more as a paramilitary organisation, masters at the retention of political power.

Ncube contends that Emmerson Mnangagwa is presiding over what has always been a vicious political party and General Constantino Chiwenga (who ensured former president Robert Mugabe’s exit) has been the enforcer of Zanu-pf’s viciousness since independence.

So when the opposition carefully weighs up its choices, it should bear in mind this is the same Zanu which first diminished, then subsumed

Zapu, the original liberation movement.

In the mid-1980s Zanu had set Zapu leader Joshua Nkomo finally agreed to sign a unity accord with Zanu to save his people.

The opposition in Zimbabwe today should take note of the results of Zapu capitulating to a unity deal with their political rivals. Zapu was subsumed by Zanu and neutered as a political force. Worse still, while in the unity government Nkomo and his proposals were ignored by Zanu-pf colleagues. He died a defeated man.

Just as Zanu destroyed Zapu’s political base in the 1980s, a similar tactic was used to neutralise the MDC in the 2000s. In 2002 three prominent MDC leaders were charged with treason: Welshman Ncube, Morgan Tsvangirai and Renson Gasela.

The trial and restrictions weakened the MDC, and by 2004 Zanupf had successfully undermined most of the MDC’S political structures.

The MDC went into the 2005 elections weak and unable to campaign in many areas. Its members in the rural areas were too terrified to go to rallies.

Despite all the obstacles, the MDC still beat Zanu-pf in the 2008 elections, although it failed to get more than 50% of the vote. The military and Zanu-pf structures then unleashed unprecedented political violence against the MDC opposition, virtually going on a killing spree, not dissimilar to the violence unleashed against Zapu in the 1980s.

It was the same Chiwenga who staged a coup against Mugabe last week who worked alongside Police Chief Augustine Chihuri in the repression of the opposition after 2000. Just before the 2008 elections, Chiwenga had said in a press conference that if Tsvangirai won the election, he wouldn’t be commanderin-chief as he had never fought in the Chimurenga (revolutionary struggle).

After the 2008 election Chiwenga supposedly told Mugabe: “We can’t lose elections. We can’t hand power to the MDC. We will obliterate them.”

That position is unlikely to have changed. The military under Chiwenga’s leadership is likely to continue subverting democracy.