Shannon Ebrahim
protect Saudi Arabia from what he perceives as Tehran’s efforts to dominate the Muslim world.
He even specified that a conflict between the Sunni-led kingdom and Shia-led Iran appeared inevitable. It is now not a question of whether a conflict will start, but when.
This rhetoric has not gone down well in Iran, with Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, responding by calling the Saudi leadership “idiots” whose policies would lead to “certain downfall”.
Bin Salman’s remarks have also helped to fuel the widespread belief that the Saudis were behind the recent terrorist attacks in Tehran that were claimed by the Islamic State.
As defence minister and now next in line to the throne, Bin Salman is likely to engage in covert efforts to destabilise Iran, if not engage in allout conventional warfare.
He is confident that both the US and Israel have his support, which may convince him that a war with Iran could significantly weaken Iran’s military capabilities.
Iran’s influence as a significant power in the Islamic world is arguably the root cause of Saudi Arabia’s aggression, as it is well aware that Iran is currently operating from a position of strength – with a burgeoning economy that is diversified away from natural resources, and a high degree of self-sufficiency given the previous imposition of sanctions which forced it to become self-reliant.
Saudi Arabia is also very much aware that the Iranian leadership is far more accountable to its people given its democratic elections, while Saudi Arabia has never held an electoral poll, and its subjects have little say in the running of the country.
This system may have been sustainable when the state’s coffers were full and the state could easily provide free education and health care, but with the slump in oil prices, which have fallen from $100 a barrel a few years ago to just $48, Saudi Arabia has now fallen on hard times.
For the first time, last September, the kingdom was compelled to introduce austerity measures and cancel the bonuses of those in the public sector.
These were reinstated this week by the king, after much consternation among government workers. With a predominantly young populace, Bin Salman realises he will need to introduce moderate reforms if he is to keep a lid on the frustration of the growing youth population, many of whom are unemployed.
The state faces declining consumer confidence and even with the announcement of Bin Salman as the new crown prince, oil prices continued to fall this week.
The crown prince’s greatest challenge is that he has raised expectations over the past few years about what he can accomplish, without having delivered any significant gains.
Bin Salman was responsible for producing Vision 2030 – a roadmap for re-imagining the Saudi economy and diversifying it away from its reliance on oil revenue.
It will be difficult to succeed with such plans while pouring state resources into expensive and misguided military adventures.
It is not only in Iran and Yemen that Bin Salman will foment conflict; he has also masterminded the recent isolation of Qatar, along with his mentor, Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al-nahyan, the crown prince of the United Arab Emirates.
It is difficult to see how the rise to power of Bin Salman will serve the interests of peace and security in the Middle East or anywhere else.