Vavi alone has the clout
We shall see whether Vavi has the courage to step outside Cosatu – and who would follow him
Though ideological differences led to the unravelling of labour federation Cosatu and the tripartite alliance, there’s no escaping the influence of personalities. Gap-toothed firebrand Irvin Jim and his Numsa friends complain Cosatu has drifted away from its role as a shield and spear of the working class. Jim sees collusion between politicians, business and even some unions against the legitimate demands of workers.
Despite his flaws, there is some truth in what Jim says. His directness is reminiscent of part of a Carl Sandburg poem, The People, Yes: The rights of property are guarded by ten thousand laws and fortresses. The right of a man to live by his work– what is this right? and why does it clamour? and who can hush it so it will stay hushed? and why does it speak and though put down speak again with strengths out of the earth? Our fat-cat politicians have indeed lost touch with those whose labours and votes put them in power. These put-down voices will not be silenced. So we are witnessing a necessary correction. Marikana was a warning of how Cosatu, through the National Union of Mineworkers (NUM), was losing touch with workers. The NUM’s bosses had been co-opted by the elite.
Within Cosatu, the public sector unions ( government employees) have predominated over the more traditional working class. Thus there are hundreds of thousands who feel the federation no longer speaks for them. Zwelinzima Vavi gives them a voice but he has been hamstrung since having an affair with a junior employee.
It’s not really about his sex life. Many in Cosatu have been more indiscreet. Vavi’s nemesis, President Jacob Zuma, has set an almost unmatchable standard for sexual indiscretion. Vavi is targeted because of his opposition to what he calls “political hyenas” feeding at the Zuma ranch. His criticisms of Zuma have not been as forthright as those uttered by Jim, but he has not been co-opted into the Zuma camp – unlike Cosatu president Sdumo Dlamini.
These then are the main personalities in this drama: Jim, Vavi, Dlamini and Zuma. Ultimately it comes down to Vavi and Zuma. Vavi’s principled decision not to follow the Zuma line has led to this impasse.
If Zuma had not been so greedy, if he had been genuinely more interested in serving the people instead of his family and friends, Vavi and company would not have baulked. The alliance would be intact. In this analysis, Zuma is responsible for the alliance fracturing. A leader with a wider vision would have been able to keep the partners together.
Vavi, almost alone in South Africa, has the political clout to stand up to Zuma. No one knows which way he will turn, but his position in Cosatu will be weakened by the absence of Numsa. If his fate can be decided by a special national congress, where workers have more say – rather than the central executive committee, where Dlamini holds sway – Vavi may stay and Cosatu could arguably survive.
We shall see whether he has the courage to step outside Cosatu – and who would follow him.
The realignment of South African politics is gathering momentum. Shorn of worker radicals on the left, will the ANC drift to the centre or keep leaning left? Can opposition parties exploit the spaces opening up?