Boom! Why nuclear is SA’s best bet
SA should be wary of unproven claims that renewables will replace fossil fuels, says expert.
Systemic supply needs to meet fluctuating demand within one tenth of a second, says expert.
In planning its lower-emissions energy path, South Africa should be wary of unproven claims that renewables will replace fossil fuels, says Ben Heard, director of lobby group Bright New World. Heard says nuclear is a viable, low-carbon alternative to coal and gas. He’s in South Africa as a guest of the Nuclear Industry Association of South Africa.
'No evidence'
He says modelled scenarios claiming a 100% renewable electricity system is achievable have no historical evidence backing their claims.
“The only developed nation today with electricity from 100% renewable sources is Iceland, thanks to a unique endowment of shallow geothermal aquifers, abundant hydropower, and a population of only 0.3 million people,” Heard says.
“Of the studies published to date, 24 have forecast regional, national or global energy requirements at sufficient detail to be considered potentially credible.”
He reviewed all 24 and a Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) paper, and found them “wanting”.
Heard explains certain renewables – like geothermal and hydro – are reliable. But the former comes at a prohibitive cost and hydro relies on sustained water resources South Africa doesn’t have.
Wind and solar photovoltaic we have in abundance, but it is variable – only available when the sun shines or the wind blows. Early data from connected Eskom projects shows average availability of just 30%.
Variable generation would increase the reliance on peaking power, as Eskom’s increased use of expensive diesel generators has illustrated.
This would increase the overall cost to the system, and variable sources are asynchronous.
Heard explains systemic supply needs to meet fluctuating demand within one tenth of a second, as small and big consumer behaviour (e.g. turning lights or smelters on and off) changes during the normal course of a day.
Wind or solar turbines are unable to maintain the continuous supply momentum one gets from Eskom’s traditional coal-fired generators
This is fine up to a point, he says, but no one knows what percentage of renewables would exceed the tolerance of the system.
He says optimal renewable penetration is “probably” between 15% and 30%. But the CSIR study says that 70% use of renewables could save the country R90 billion per year.
South Africa has to invest in base load power for reliable supply needed to grow the economy. “It’s almost impossible to underinvest in base load,” Heard says.
“From an environmental perspective, nuclear is the answer to replace coal to ensure a reduction in carbon emissions.”
Open bidding
Heard is convinced that nuclear can be affordable, provided the procurement is done through an open and competitive bidding process.
“I think if South Africa runs an open and competitive process, it will get a good deal,” he says, citing the example of the United Arab Emirates that procured 5 600MW at $4 000 (R 50 760) per kW installed capacity.