Zuma wields the axe, at last
The ANC and its alliance is deeply divided. It is likely that SA will be a much diminished nation by the time the next election crawls around in 2019.
Mutiny is a high-risk venture. However justified it might be, no matter how much the country might be groaning under the burden of a despised leader, the plotters typically only have one swing of the axe, so to speak.
Should they fail and the head of state survives, the power shifts to the incumbent, who can now rally all the resources of the state to strike back. The next blade to fall is likely to be that of the guillotine, on their treasonous necks.
This is the reality that those in the ANC who oppose President Jacob Zuma have had to confront. They failed in their earlier attempt at insurrection when, a few months ago, they could not at a meeting of the party’s national executive committee (NEC) scrape together a majority to demand Zuma’s resignation.
Tactically, it is a fatal mistake to show your hand if you cannot lay it down to scoop the pot. This is Political Survival 101.
After all, the “recall” of former president Thabo Mbeki was executed with textbook precision. It is a state of the art coup d’état when the target goes willingly to the scaffold in the company of the revolutionaries, confident that it is he who will be pulling the execution lever.
When the anti-Zuma coalition failed at the NEC meeting, they effectively signed their own political death warrants. The sacking of Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan and his deputy Mcebisi Jonas this week are the first heads to roll but they assuredly will not be the last.
The bloodletting was delayed by a combination of factors.
The less important one was the threat of a ratings downgrade and a run on the currency. The sacking of former finance minister Nhlanhla Nene had badly dented international confi- dence in SA, forcing Zuma to back off and hastily draft into the fray the one man who could stave off the crisis, Gordhan.
This is at present less of a factor. Our major trading and investment partners – the dollar, sterling and euro nations – are experiencing their own economic problems, making the rand less vulnerable.
Also, in Zuma’s world, national interest takes second place to the interests of his inner circle. The growing judicial and investigative pressure on Zuma’s controversial benefactors, the Guptas, as well as other “state capture” leeches, have made action a necessity.
The more important staying factor was the relative balance of power within the party. Zuma survived the NEC insurrection because his opponents were not strong enough.
But they were strong enough for it to be, by all accounts, a close run thing. Before he could retaliate, Zuma had to be confident that he could carry the day, which is why he has spent a great deal of time and energy trying to ensure that his personal power base is impregnable.
The recall of Gordhan and Jonas from an international investor road show, on the trite pretext of an “intelligence” report that the two are in cahoots with international capital and plotting regime change, indicates that Zuma feels that moment has arrived.
The death of liberation stalwart Ahmed Kathrada put Zuma’s plans temporarily on hold. Zuma has now wielded his executioner’s axe. Given the powers of incumbency, the odds are that he will ride out the anger and alarm provoked by his replacements at the Treasury especially.
The ANC and its alliance, however, is deeply divided. It is likely, too, that SA will be a much diminished nation by the time the next election crawls around in 2019.