This may just be Zuma’s last stand

ISOLATED PRESIDENT: ECONOMY TAKES BACK SEAT TO POLITICAL INTRIGUE

The nation waits to see what the ANC is going to do about a president gone rogue while ratings agencies skulk on the sidelines, fingers on the ‘downgrade’ button.

We will soon know how much of President Jacob Zuma’s power base remains, as the dust settles after last week’s Cabinet blitzkrieg. Unprecedented public rebukes from party members, led by ANC secretary-general Gwede Mantashe, deputy president Cyril Ramaphosa and treasurer-general Zweli Mkhize – suggest that the ANC could remove him from office.

Foregone conclusion

Former finance minister Pravin Gordhan and his deputy Mcebisi Jonas’ dismissals were not that big a surprise.

Gordhan’s predicament became a personification of the fight against corruption and State capture.

Two reshuffle events really stand out. The first was the very dodgy “intelligence report” on which Gordhan’s London recall was based.

It was “sickening” that it was used as justification for his dismissal, he said. He is right. It would have been more dignified if he had been fired without any justification.

Expect to hear more about this report. But a second document raises more questions and reveals the depth of Zuma’s predicament. It is the list of Cabinet changes he presented to the ANC’s top six last week.

Mantashe said in a radio interview the next morning that the list was “presented” to the ANC top six, that it was compiled “elsewhere” and that he did not know who the author(s) were. He may just as well have confirmed that the list was printed on a Gupta letterhead.

This is the smoking gun. Who compiled the list? Was it Zuma himself? Was it the Guptas? Was it someone else? Why did Zuma not attempt to discuss this with the ANC top six?

Despite the ANC’s top six meeting weekly, don’t expect swift action.

This will add to the economic fallout, which will be severe.

Don’t be surprised if Moody’s downgrades us on Friday. And certainly don’t expect big announcements of investments in the local economy soon.

Desperate times

Zuma may have overplayed his hand out of pure desperation, setting in motion a coordinated process to remove him from office. At least this is a positive development.

But Zuma is a wily survivor. He will fight for his and his benefactors’ political futures. Hopefully the developments of the past week have hollowed out his political support, foreclosing another Houdini act.