Why your pockets are empty

RECESSION: PUBLIC IS NOT SPENDING AFTER LOSING CONFIDENCE

South Africans feel ‘worried and powerless’ in an uncertain economic and political environment – and are afraid to spend.

‘Ongoing corruption and hopelessness’ to blame, say experts.

South Africans feel so “worried, powerless and disenfranchised” in an uncertain economic and political environment that they are afraid to spend – and this is partly responsible for pushing the country into a consumer-led recession after more than 20 years, economists say.

The recession – announced yesterday by Statistics South Africa (StatsSA) – is partly due to lost consumer confidence.

“They see corruption and nothing being done about it. They see the good guys being gunned down. They are under stress,” economist Mike Schussler said.

Consumers were also not spending due to high inflation and job insecurity, with prices rising faster than salaries. “But part has to do with the ongoing corruption and the hopelessness people feel around it,” Schussler said.

“Business people don’t trust the government – the consumer, across all income groups, feels under stress.

“When people don’t feel certain they don’t buy houses, cars, durable items. People are cutting back – and it’s been going on for a while. Take-home pay doesn’t look good for consumers.”

StatsSA announced yesterday that the country’s economy slipped into recession, with the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate being 0.7% in the first quarter of 2017.

“The largest negative contributor to growth in the GDP in the first quarter was the trade, catering and accommodation industry, which decreased by 5.9% and contributed -0.8 of a percentage point to GDP growth,” Stats SA said.

“The manufacturing industry contracted by 3.7% and contributed -0.5 of a percentage point to GDP growth. Seven out of 10 divisions reported negative growth in the first quarter.”

The largest contributor to the decrease was the petroleum, chemical products, rubber and plastic products division.

Expenditure on GDP fell by 0.8% in the first quarter of 2017, with household final consumption expenditure decreasing by 2.3% in the first quarter, contributing -1.4 percentage points to total growth.

National Treasury in a statement said following the “worse-than-expected GDP outcome”, Finance Minister Malusi Gigaba would seek a “meeting with business leaders to discuss ways to achieve economic growth”.

“The current state of the economy puts more pressure on us as government, business, labour and broader society to intensify our growth programme and improve confidence as a matter of urgency to arrest the decline and set the economy on a higher growth trajectory,” it said.

“This GDP outcome introduces significant downward bias to the GDP growth estimates communicated in the 2017 Budget Review, which projected 2017 GDP growth at 1.3%.

“The current growth rate, if sustained, will lead to a further decline in GDP per capita and revenue, risking the sustainability of our fiscal framework.”

Schussler said the axing of former finance minister Nhlanhla Nene by President Jacob Zuma in 2015, pushed the rand to an alltime low – leaving South Africans shell-shocked.

“The inflation rate was because weakness of rand and that was because of politics.”

Former finance minister Pravin Gordhan then replaced Nene and was working on ratings agencies who at the time “were not happy with us”, he said. Gordhan and his deputy, Mcebisi Jonas, were axed earlier this year.

“So if you look at that, at least part of this is due to consumers losing confidence because of the weak rand. The middle class also sees there is no prospect of going up in a company. You are not getting the salary increases you’ve seen before.

“There is the person on the factory floor as well, and that firm isn’t expanding anymore. They see the emperor standing naked.”

Political economy analyst Zamikhaya Maseti also pointed to the drought which cost more than 44 000 jobs in the first sector of the year.

“The global economy is also growing at a snail’s pace.”

South Africa’s recent downgrade also had “everything to do with political decisions”, Maseti said.

“And we are punished by ratings agencies – they can blame the downgrade on Zuma.

“It is because of mismanagement of economy and politics.”

After several dalliances with negative growth, the country has endured two consecutive quarters of backsliding.

South Africa’s economy fell into a recession for the first time since 2009, after it contracted for a second straight quarter in the first three months of the year as all but two industries shrank.

Gross domestic product receded an annualised 0.7% in the first quarter from a contraction of 0.3% in the previous three months, Statistics South Africa said yesterday.

Against expectations

The median of 19 economists’ estimates in a Bloomberg survey was for 1% expansion. There was only one forecast for a contraction.

While rains are helping Africa’s most-industrialised economy recover from a 2015-2016 drought, political uncertainty has hampered implementing reforms aimed at boosting growth. President Jacob Zuma changed his cabinet and fired Pravin Gordhan as finance minister in March – a move that saw the nation lose its investment-grade status with two ratings companies for the first time in 17 years.

“There is a risk that these contractions are not over and we could see another negative coming out in the second quarter of this year,” Annabel Bishop, the chief economist at Investec, said.

All industries, except agriculture and mining, contracted in the quarter, StatsSA said. The finance, real estate and business services industry shrank 1.2%, the first decline since at least the first quarter of 2013.

The rand lost 1.4% to 12.8920 per dollar by 12.22pm. Yields on rand-denominated government bonds, due December 2026, rose 6 basis points to 8.49% – the first increase in five days.

The six-member banks index extended declines after the release, dropping 1.7% in Johannesburg.

S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings affirmed South Africa’s debt at the highest non-investment grade last week, with both companies saying policy uncertainty, political turmoil and slow economic growth pose a risk to fiscal consolidation.

Moody’s Investors Service, which rates the nation at two levels above junk, has the nation on review for a downgrade.

“The rating agencies, even if they have already done their assessments, will no doubt be downgrading their GDP outlook off the basis of these numbers,” Gina Schoeman, an economist at Citigroup, said.

South Africa’s growth slowed to 0.3% last year, the lowest rate since 2009, after low commodity prices, the effects of the prior year’s drought and weak demand for locally made goods weighed on output.

Unemployment rose to a 14year high in the first quarter. The business confidence index remains near the lowest level in more than two decades.

Christie Viljoen, an economist at KPMG, said: “I’m not excited about a big turnaround in the GDP numbers for the second quarter. There’s just no reason to believe that at this stage.”

The central bank on May 25 reduced its forecast for growth this year to 1% from 1.2%, and trimmed the outlook for 2018 to 1.5% from 1.7% because of the anticipated impact of the downgrades.