JZ will win despite the secrecy

Andrew Kenny

Despite the surprising – or even shocking as some would call it – decision by Speaker Baleka Mbete to hold today’s vote of no confidence in President Zuma by secret ballot, I predict that Zuma will still emerge victorious.

Any opponent who under estimates Zuma’s cunning and tight grip on power is heading for a fall. Zuma might be corrupt and a ruinous president of SA but he is a master of the ANC’s political machine. He spends much time securing his position in its branches around the land, especially in KZN.

The overriding consideration of ANC MPs is this: “How do I keep my well-paid job?” Many are ill-qualified and incompetent and could not get a job outside politics, let alone one with the enormous salary of an MP. Their job depends on the party leader and they worry how likely he is to stay in power.

Zuma exploits this anxiety with the simple message: “Support me and I’ll keep you on the gravy train.”

I am not completely certain that the secret ballot is favourable. In Britain, people vote for the person not the party; so the party cannot remove an MP, no matter how much he defies it. In SA, we vote for the party not the person; so the party can get rid of any MP whenever it wants. The ANC could sack an MP it saw voting against Zuma. It couldn’t if the ballot is secret.

But I think we should always know how MPs vote. The ANC can bully MPs it sees voting against it but it seems to me that our electoral system, which is democratic after all, gives parties the right to bully their MPs. We know this before we step into the voting booth.

It is essential there should be a secret ballot for people voting in a general election and for workers voting on whether to strike or not. Otherwise, intimidation by the strong would make the voting of the weak meaningless. But our secret vote is for a party and perhaps the voting of its MPs in parliament should always be open.

You don’t like Zuma? Then don’t vote ANC in 2019.

I think Zuma will still win today.

In December he has a high chance of being voted in for a third term as president of the ANC.