Life begins at 40 in English Premier League

Not all football fans are blessed with backing regular league title contenders. For a large chunk of supporters, the excitement and promise of what their club can achieve at the start of the season quickly fades away, and the scrap to stay up becomes their primary concern. It usually takes three months before the doubt starts to creep in, and the feared question: “How many points do we still need to stay up?” emerges.

Tottenham Hotspur may be lying in fourth spot in the English Premier League standings as they enter the 13th week of competition this weekend, but it doesn’t stop my father-in-law, an ardent Spurs fans, from saying: “We still need at least another 17 points to avoid the drop.”

With the quality of the Spurs squad, coupled with their strong form in Europe, accumulating another 17 points shouldn’t be a problem, but it just highlights how stressful this part of the season can be for any supporter. A promising start can soon dry up, and every point then becomes crucial. A frenetic schedule over the festive period – Premier League teams play four matches in 10 days from December 23 to January 2 – often makes or breaks a season. You hit the right form over December and January, and you’re cruising. You struggle over that period, and you are in real trouble – as is your manager.

So how many points are needed to avoid the chop?

In the English Premier League

Trevor Stevens

40 will usually keep you safe. Just don’t tell West Ham United fans that. In 2002/03 the Hammers were relegated after reaching 42 points. Over the last 21 years, West Ham were only one of three teams to have finished in the bottom three with 40 points or more, with Sunderland (1996/97, 40) and Bolton (1997/98, 40) the other two.

One of the toughest seasons for survival was in 2010/11 when West Ham, Blackpool and Birmingham accumulated a combined 111 points and all finished in the bottom three, while Wolves, Wigan and Blackburn just avoided the axe.

Sometimes, by this stage of the season a supporter has resigned to the fact that it is all over bar a miracle. Derby County recorded the fewest points with 11 in 2007/08, while Sunderland only managed 15 in 2005/06 and Aston Villa’s 17 points last term was the third worst in 21 years.

So what’s the magic number of the 24-team English Championship, often described as the most competitive league in world football?

Over the last 10 years, the average points total for 22nd place has been 45.9, with the average for 21st being 49.7 – giving some credence to the notion that 50 points will keep a team up. Only twice in the last 10 years has that not been the case – Gillingham were relegated in 2005 on goal difference with 50 while Peterborough United went down in 2013 with a massive 54 points. Eina! Locally, where’s the safe zone? In the 16-team Absa Premiership, over the last five seasons the average points tally for the 15th team is 27.8 and 24.6 for the 16th team. It’s slightly different in our top-flight league as the team that finishes 15th can still stay up if they win their three-team playoffs. Team No 16 is automatically relegated.

They say life begins at 40. For a number of English Premier League teams and managers it will, while in South Africa 30 is the new 20.