Scotland will suffer without Brexit deal
– Scotland’s economy would shrink by 8.5% if Britain leaves the European Union (EU) without a deal, Scottish leader Nicola Sturgeon warned on Monday as she pushed for Britain to stay in the single market.
“There is no option short of EU membership that is as good as being in the EU,” First Minister Sturgeon said as she presented an analysis of the economic impact of possible future ties with the bloc.
“This is about degrees of what does the least damage to our economy,” she told journalists in the Scottish capital Edinburgh.
According to the new analysis, Scotland’s GDP would plunge 8.5% by 2030 – or £12.7 billion (R213 billion) – if no deal is reached with Brussels; and Britain has to fall back on World Trade Organisation rules.
This compares to a 6.1% fall if a free trade accord is signed with the bloc, and 2.7% drop if the UK joins the European Economic Area and therefore stays part of the single market.
Sturgeon said the impact study served as “compelling” evidence that Britain should remain part of the single market, if it is not possible to stay an EU member as her Scottish National Party (SNP) would like.
Scotland backed EU membership by 62% in the June 2016 referendum, compared to the British vote of 52% in favour of Brexit.
The SNP has previously pushed for a second referendum on Scottish independence from Britain, as a result of Brexit, and Sturgeon said on Sunday a decision on holding another vote would be taken when the shape of the EU deal becomes clearer.
Sturgeon predicted a majority of British lawmakers would support single market membership, despite Prime Minister Theresa May ruling it out largely owing to its condition of continuing free movement of people.
But the Scottish leader said: “Growing our working age population, is perhaps the greatest national challenge that we face.” London and Brussels are due to move on to the next stage of Brexit negotiations this year. –