New broom sweeps clean?

LETS SEE: SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY

While the economy seems to be facing another slow-growth year, 2018 could turn out to be surprisingly good for the ANC. Moneyweb

There’s a sense of renewed optimism from ANC members, including a few friends who went to East London to listen to party president Cyril Ramaphosa’s January 8 address. Unlike the Polokwane conference, the crevice between the winners and losers at Nasrec is but a tiny eye of a needle. Or at least it’s being presented as such.

While it’s tempting when there’s a leadership vacuum and economic crises to proclaim that any new leader is a breath of fresh air, I caution against being so excitable that we forget Ramaphosa has been part of the current administration for the past few years. The new broom isn’t so new; it’s the same old one, only it has been given a new broom – only time will tell how effective it will be in sweeping clean.

However, against the run of ongoing trends within the ANC of the winner takes all, the new leadership and its supporters are yet to publicly speak of purging those who lost out. There was a rather modest return to civility and a conciliation.

Are we about to see an ANC that charts 2018 in an improved state?

For now, it seems the new leaders understand the interplay between politics and economy. Last week, the World Bank cut its outlook for SA’s economic growth from 1.1% to 0.6%.

Has the pin finally dropped for the ANC? Is it now privy to how political risk and policy ubiquities weigh heavy on SA’s economic outlook? It’s possible; why else would it want to “restore our focus on building the economy”? The call to return to Mandela’s non-racial society, with no economic barriers for blacks and whites is a clear departure from the rhetoric of the outgoing leadership’s intentional focus on race. It may never happen, but within the party there seem to be those who see the potential for its revival and a return to an SA bound by a common vision for the people.

However, it doesn’t matter how well-intentioned or greatly-delivered the perfectly-crafted speech was – it remains empty until those words are put into policies.

Statements such as wanting “an economy that encourages and welcomes investment, offers policy certainty and addresses barriers that inhibit growth” and an economy built on “efficient and accountable government, responsible businesses and effective trade unions” raise flags.

The ANC has a terrible track record around offering policy certainty.

The fact remains: SA faces an economy stuck at the bottom of the well while its children are crying for water.

Also, as a power struggle heightens between Ramaphosa and Zuma and their supporters, key political posts will be affected, as outgoing leaders seem unwilling to relinquish power. Incoming leaders will have to boldly claim it.

The January 8 statement was a positive spark. Will the world buy it? Will the ratings agencies be appeased? Is this enough to jumpstart the economy? I think the ANC, like the rest of SA, is hoping against the odds.