Is net about to close on Zuma?

LATE START: NPA HAS CHANGED THE GAME

Ramaphosa’s election has shifted the balance of power.

Since the Gupta’s extravagant Sun City wedding, a slew of revelations have come out. These range from the State of Capture report of former public protector Thuli Madonsela, to the damning #GuptaLeaks uncovered by against the Zuma faction. Also, the ANC is concerned about its electoral future, with the 2019 national election on the horizon.

It seems denial in the ANC has been replaced by a sense of fear. The party is trying to show the voting public that it can clear up the mess that it has made.

Chickens home to roost

The NPA’s announcement suggests the chickens seem finally to be on their way home to roost on the Gupta empire. The AFU has applied to the high court for an order that the Guptas must “preserve” R1.6 billion worth of assets.

The court must grant the order if there are reasonable grounds to believe that property is the “instrumentality of an offence” or “is the proceeds of unlawful activities”.

An analysis of the Act makes it clear that, if a preservation order is requested, the intention of the NPA must be to arrest and charge the Guptas and their associates.

Dilemma

However, if the ANC’s intention is to make the Guptas the sole scapegoats in the state capture saga, they’ll be in a good deal of trouble. The evidence strongly suggests they weren’t acting alone.

The NPA will struggle to prove its case against the Guptas, at least the full extent of it, without implicating those that drove or condoned their misdemeanours.

It seems clear, therefore, that the ANC cannot restore its reputation while letting its leaders who looted the country’s resources drift off into the wilderness.

This presents Ramaphosa with an acute political dilemma given that he’s pledged to rebuild unity in the ANC.

Hence, we are likely to see a high level and multifaceted blame game. But any attempt to restore its credibility will probably prove counter productive unless the party accepts that some of its biggest fish must be prosecuted too.

Private sector players such as Trillian and KPMG, which were willing enablers of the abuse of state procurement processes, must also be held to account.

Richard Calland is associate professor in public law at UCT and Mike Law is senior legal researcher in public law at UCT.

This article was originally published on The Conversation and has been cut and edited.