Striker’s Guineas Day tips
BEST HORSES HAVE LANDED WIDEST BARRIERS AND WILL NEED TO COME FROM OFF THE PACE
Fish River in Fillies Guineas looks a Place Accumulator banker.
Today we run the Gauteng Guineas and the Wilgerbosdrift Gauteng Fillies Guineas at Turffontein which is the first leg of the SA Triple Crown and the Wilgerbosdrift Triple Tiara for fillies.
The Guineas comprises many of your young up-and-coming protagonists and it is always interesting to see who comes out on top. We have a full field of 16 runners but some will have their chances affected by a bad draw and unfortunately my runner, Surcharge, is one of them.
Without a doubt he is one of the best three-year-olds in the country but his chances will be severely affected, not only because of the bad draw but because he does not jump well out of the starting stalls and that leaves me only one option and that is to drop him out. All I can do is hope he’s good enough to beat this field, despite all the problems.
The same will likely apply to Majestic Mambo. He also does not seem to jump that well and with the bad draw, will also probably come from the back of the field.
Taking all those factors into account the horses to follow should be Monks Hood, Greek Fire and Noble Secret.
Another horse with potential to win is Vacquero but the race does not stop there. Royal Crusade, from No 1 draw, becomes a runner as well but this is probably the type of race where luck in running could determine the result.
For the Pick 6 you will need to include all of those mentioned but for the Place Accumulator taking the draw and form into account, go with Monks Hood, Greek Fire and Noble Secret. If you feel those are not enough, consider Surcharge and Majestic Mambo as both are expected to be running on strongly.
The Fillies Guineas could be a little bit easier as possibly only two horses can win in my opinion – Folk Dance and Fish River with the only other possibility being Silver Thursday. For the Pick 6 you could go light but for the PA Fish River could be a banker. She is drawn slightly better than Folk Dance and as Folk Dance has not raced since November, Fish River must be the fitter of the two.
I ride Aurelia Cotta. We’re hoping for a good run but she is held on form on numerous runs.
We start the meeting with a Maiden Plate where on form it should be a two-horse race between Tia and Generous Notion.
Race 2 is another Maiden Plate where the horse with the strongest formline is Forgimme. There are some lightly raced horses who could improve and some unraced runners so it is quite difficult to make an assessment.
I’m riding Alphamikefoxtrot who is slowly making improvement and I hope he finds a place.
Race 3 is another Maiden Plate, this time over 2000m, where the horse with the highest merit rating is Mario Lanza. He has been overracing in his last couple of runs and maybe coming back to this distance he will be more relaxed and therefore will have a better chance. He is worth banking in the PA.
The rest of the field on current form is quite weak but the danger could come from lightly raced Wolves Among Sheep.
Race 4 is another Maiden Plate and we have a number of horses with chances as their formlines are very close together. The main contenders are Corrido, who just got beat last time in his first run after having been gelded, and Ghost Rider who tired late last time. He has a good draw this time and could be a good back up.
As this is a competitive field include both in the Place Accumulator. For the Pick 6 other possibilities are Stop And Stare, The Bee Eff Gee, Tommy The Builder and the lightly raced Prince Swarovski
Race 5 is a Pinnacle Stakes and your highest rated horses should come out on top. This time that honour goes to all the fillies who are taking on the colts. Taking form and fitness into account my selections are Girl On The Run, Wind Chill, Orchid Island and Fort Ember.
For the PA go with Girl On The Run with two of the others mentioned.
For the Pick 6 go with all the fillies and the colt who could win if he produces his best form, Brazuca.
Race 6 is the Hawaii Stakes where the two horses who are well suited to this course and distance are Will Pays and Captain Aldo. Amazing Strike must have a chance although he beat Captain Aldo but is worse off at the weights. However, the draw is crucial over this course and distance so he does need to be included. They should be good enough for the PA.
For the Pick 6 consider Africa Rising and the young and improving Sir David Baird, although it’s difficult to make a comparison with the older horses.
I ride Kangaroo Jack who does not have a good draw and I’m not sure whether this is his best track.
Race 7 is the Acacia Handicap where our main selections are Kilauea, Sylvan On Fire and Shatoosh. Those should be sufficient for the PA but there are others who are well drawn and luck in running could pay a huge part in a difficult race. They are Redberry Lane, Simply Royal and Bi Pot.
Race 10 is the Aquanaut Handicap and usually in races like this over ground it is difficult to make predictions. But in this case Sheet Weaver looks a hard horse to beat. His main dangers are Kilrain and Dromedaris and he is quite well off at the weights with both of them.
There are others horses with chances but Sheet Weaver could be a possible banker in the second Jackpot.
I ride The Elmo Effect who is well held on previous runs.
Race 11 has another possible banker in Pera Palace. I made my second selection Hakeem but the last time the two of them met Pera Palace beat him comfortably and is 1kg better off. Not far behind Hakeem is Torre Del Oro.
I ride Whorly Whorly who looks held on many runs but hopefully he can place.
Race 12 is a tricky handicap but my main selections are Barbel Run, Silver King and Well Connected. I ride Lauren Of Rochelle who is held on form and I would be happy with a place.