Mendelssohn carries the hopes of a Kentucky success
DOUBTS: RYAN MOORE OPTS FOR MENDELSSOHN, BUT JUSTIFY COULD BE TOO GOOD
Torcedor looks one to boost the Newmarket betting kitty today. London
My foreign racing “bucket list” included the Breeders Cup, Melbourne Cup, Dubai World Cup and Kentucky Derby, and I have been lucky enough to tick off all four.
I would love to be able to return to Churchill Downs this weekend for the clash between Mendelssohn and Justify in the ‘Run For The Roses’, not only as it gives Europe it’s best ever chance of breaking the jinx but also because it would provide me with the opportunity of erasing the biggest ante-climax I have experienced in 50 years of racing journalism.
How could I forget the 1992 Kentucky Derby? French-trained Arazi, who had produced a National Velvet-type performance when blitzing the Americans in the previous year’s Breeders Cup Juvenile, was a red-hot favourite.
So my editor on The Sporting Life gave me permission to miss the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket on the same day and instead head off to Kentucky to witness history being made.
It was a fabulous trip and there wasn’t a dry eye in the house during an emotional rendering of ‘My Old Kentucky Home’ as the runners filed out on to the course, but from thereon it went downhill.
Arazi ran no race whatsoever, trailing in eighth behind the unconsidered Lil E Tee, and there was salt rubbed into my wounds of disappointment when a local racing hack tapped me on the shoulder and said “have you ever felt that you were in the wrong country watching the wrong horserace”.
He was referring to news which had just filtered across the pond that the legendary Lester Piggott had just ridden his 40th classic winner on Rodrigo De Triano in the Guineas at Newmarket. Gutted or what!
Looking ahead to Saturday, the dirt holds no terrors for Mendelssohn as the Coolmore colt was awesome when winning the UAE Derby, but he enjoyed the “golden highway” at Meydan, racing on the favoured rail which proved the place to be throughout the Dubai Carnival.
Ryan Moore has deserted riding the Guineas favourite at Newmarket to partner Mendelssohn in Kentucky, but there must be doubts whether he will be allowed a similar soft lead in this bigger field
Consequently, I am siding with JUSTIFY, who is 3-3 and is getting rave reviews on the other side of the Atlantic.
He only made his first appearance in February – the last horse to win the Derby having not raced at two was Apollo in 1882 – but “the boy became a man” when winning the Santa Anita Derby and Bob Baffert, arguably the best trainer in America, is oozing confidence.
Win or lose, Moore will be on the “red eye” back to Britain in time to ride Aidan O’Brien’s HAPPILY in the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket on Sunday.
Happily won two Group 1s last season, the Moyglare in her homeland and then the Prix Jean Luc Lagardere against the boys in France, and if you put a line through her Breeders Cup disappointment she has a major chance of giving Coolmore their fifth victory in the first fillies’ classic in the last seven years.
Soliloquy, who has been supplemented, and Wild Illusion give Godolphin a strong hand, but neither looks to have the X-factor, so my advice is to back Happily with the Eachway alternative being northern challenger Laurens, and you should keep a bit back for an Oaks investment on Karl Burke’s filly.
Coolmore have an even better record in the 2000 Guineas, but Aidan O’Brien’s staff are split down the middle as to which is the better of their squad, Racing Post Trophy winner Saxon Warrior or GUSTAV KLIMT, who has been much the more popular in the betting in recent weeks.
I have backed Saxon Warrior for the Derby, and, though he is not short of pace, he still strikes me as more of a middle-distance colt.
The fact that Saxon Warrior has not had a prep race is not a worry as the trainer’s previous eight winners of the Newmarket colts’ classic all went straight to the Guineas.
And the reason O’Brien broke the mould with Gustav Klimt and took in the trial at Leopardstown, which he won impressively, was because he had been off games since winning the Group 2 Superlative Stakes at last year’s July meeting at Newmarket, too long an absence to be thrown straight into classic waters.
My long-range recommendation that you take the 7-1 about Roaring Lion is covered with humble pie after the colt’s comprehensive defeat by Masar in the Craven Stakes over the course and distance last month.
But, though the Lion is now twice those odds, John Gosden tells me the dress-rehearsal woke him up and that he is now much sharper in his work so might yet snatch a place.
I might be clutching at straws, but, while I’m not sure he can beat the Coolmore pair, I feel he has solid chances of gaining his revenge on Masar, who had a fitness edge, having wintered in Dubai, and also enjoyed a soft lead in what was a slow-run race.
Gosden’s Without Parole is also in with a squeak, though his second-rate form does not warrant his skinny odds, and, like Elarqam, who jumps up two grades, having won a Group 3 here in September, he is short on experience for the hurly burly of a classic.
We can ensure the betting bank gets a boost for Newmarket by backing Irish challenger TORCEDOR for the Group 3 Sagaro Stakes at Ascot today.
Jessie Harrington’s stayer has improved since he had a wind operation but surprised his trainer when he beat the classy Order Of St George in the Vintage Crop this time last year.
Finally, William Buick, who picked up a lucky spare when a late substitute for Kerrin McEvoy and Sylvester de Sousa in last Sunday’s £1.2-million Hong Kong Cup at Sha Tin, is sweet on his chance on Godolphin’s SOUND AND SILENCE today in the other Group 3 at Ascot, the Merriebelle Stable Pavilion Stakes.