Durban July by numbers … or dreams?

Mike Moon

There’s more than one way to skin the winner of the Vodacom Durban July.

Fillies are often the instinctive choice of female punters – especially those having a once-a-year flutter. But the statistics are not in their favour.

In 120 years of the race there have been only 12 female winners. The first was Peerless in 1903 and the most recent Igugu in 2011.

The latter was a 2-1 hot-pot favourite, while the previous “girl” winner, Dancer’s Daughter in 2008, was also tipped to win by many. As was Ipi Tombe in 2002.

The statistical lesson, of recent times at least, is that a filly can win the July but she needs to be an exceptional galloper.

Similarly, many occasional punters are drawn to grey horses. But only five have ever won the July, so it’s lucky for the unwary there are no greys in the 2018 field.

Experienced racegoers are put off by horses drawn wide when racing around bends, as at Greyville. But three winners in the past 14 years have come from the widest No 20 draw and several others have jumped from gates in double figures.

Can age be the key? Perhaps. Of 20 winners, 11 have been fouryear-olds. Just three three-yearolds and one six-year-old won then.

This year’s favourite, African Night Sky, is four.

In terms of saddle-cloth numbers, No 9 has been the luckiest for decades. Majestic Mambo carries that tomorrow; he is three years old, has drawn No 19, and he’s not grey.

Linking a vivid dream to a winning number derives from the Chinese lottery game Fafi. In Fafi, a king or a left eye represent No 1, a frog and sex No 3, a big stick No 7, a bicycle No 11, ghosts No 13. It’s worth noting that No 4 African Night Sky is linked to a turkey and a fortune, among other things. Second favourite No 8 Do It Again is coupled to a pig and a drunk.

You could always just study the form – or follow the