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FEATURES: SUMMER SEASON KICKS OFF BUT SOME HORSES LOOKING TO BIGGER RACES
Avantgarde in Race 2 looks the standout bet on the card.
We finally have come to the start of the Highveld Summer Season. However, it is difficult to make confident selections because although your better horses are coming out, their fitness is questionable as they are looking ahead to bigger races.
It is reasonable behavior because if you listen to the way top athletes talk, they also plan to peak at a particular point. You have to time your preparation as nobody can stay at 100% fitness all the time. You have to take into account many of these horses will be running over distances too short for them and if they also have to jump from a bad draw it does not give them a good chance of winning.
Therefore, you can’t always take form into account because it might not provide an accurate guide under the circumstances.
So while I will try to point punters in the right direction I do not know the state of fitness of all of these horses so sometimes you might need to include something that peaks your fancy.
We are back on the Turffontein Inside track where the first race is over 1200m and the draw is important as we jump away on the bend.
My first selection is Sea Dance who does not have a great draw but my second selection is Dancing Flame who is drawn even worse. The fact he does not jump away very well will not help his chances.
For that reason I see Sea Dance as the likely winner but there are a number of unraced horses who are well bred but most of them are drawn wide and could lack the experience to win on this track.
My first call was for the ride on Dancing Flame but taking all the negatives into account It might be better if I ride him next time out. My next call was for Sea Dance but I didn’t get that either.
Race 2 is another Maiden Plate over 1200m and the horse with the strongest form and a good draw is Avantgarde so she looks hard to beat. Her danger is La Bahia but I’m not sure the form is strong enough. There are some well-bred first-timers but they are badly drawn which is not in their favour on this course.
Race 3 is another Maiden Plate but this time over 1600m and it looks a tricky affair. My main selections are Tripple Z, Master And Man and Major Return. All three need to be included in the Place Accumulator in a tricky race.
I ride Winter Crusade who ran a place last time but on his first start he is held by two runners. I’m hoping he was quite green on that occasion and that he will make some improvement and finish in the money.
Race 4 is a Pinnacle Stakes which should suit your highest rated horses. That honour goes to Crowd Pleaser, Royal Utopia and Arte. But there is quite a lot of contradictory form and therefore any of these runners could win. For the PA consider two of those mentioned and for the Pick 6, as it is such a small field, maybe all seven should be included.
I’m riding Royal Honour who looks held on certain runs, and as he is not well handicapped either, I can only hope for a place.
Race 5 is a handicap in which a couple of horses are in good form but the runner I think is still improving is Infamous Fox who if fit and well looks the horse to beat. He is coming off a couple of weeks rest so if you are looking to back him up in the Place Accumulator then consider Doosra.
For the Pick 6 consider Shukamisa, and as my ride Arctica enjoys the distance and is fit, he could pop up.
Race 6 is another handicap with my main runners being Defy Gravity, Divine Connection and O Lucky Man. Those three should get you through the PA.
For the Pick 6 consider Private Ruler, who finished in front of Norland, who I am riding, but on that occasion Norland was found not to be striding out. Other possible inclusions are Cumberland and Varimax.
Race 7 is the Joburg Spring F&M Challenge which is difficult to assess as a lot of them are coming off a rest. This is not a handicap so the higher rated horses are at an advantage.
The best handicapped runners are Cascapedia, Al Danza and Folk Dance but their fitness is unknown and they could run below their best.
Takingthepeace is arguably the class runner in the field and from No 1 draw she could cause the surprise. For the PA consider Takingthepeace, Al Danza and Folk Dance. For the Pick 6 include all those mentioned as well as Emily Jay.
I ride Rose In Bloom who is held on form by Emily Jay and Folk Dance but I’m hoping with improved fitness she will run into the money.
The unknown could be threeyear-old Ghaalla who has lots of scope for improvement.
Race 8 is the Joburg Spring Challenge with some highly rated horses having runs after a rest. They are Coral Fever, Hat Puntano and Champagne Haze.
I’ve cut it down to four runners who are Alyaasaat, Soqrat, New Predator and Captain Aldo. For the PA go with any three mentioned and put all four in the Pick 6.
Race 9 is another fillies’ handicap with main selections being On The Double, Dame Kelly, Elusive Strike and Big Bang Theory. On The Double is a potential PA banker. She ran against very strong company last time, she has a good draw and has competed in feature races.
She is also potentially a Pick 6 banker but if you don’t like her then add the other runners.
Race 10 is another handicap over 1200m where Rock Pigeon from draw No 1 is my first selection. The dangers are Lunar Dancer and Ensemble.
I ride Goodness Me who struggled to keep up with the pace and it doesn’t help that she jumps slowly.