State capture: voters ready to punish ANC

With each passing day of Deputy Chief Justice Raymond Zondo’s Commission of Inquiry into State Capture, the ruling ANC runs the very real risk of exposure that could create massive despondency within the electorate.

And, added KwaZulu-Natal-based political analyst Lukhona Mnguni, although its voters “love” the governing party, they are also ready to “punish” it at next year’s polls for complicity in “state capture” – a term referring to the alleged kleptocratic elements that mushroomed during former president Jacob Zuma’s term.

Many of those involved in Zuma’s alleged cabal still hold influential positions in government and the ANC.

The ANC will also need to tackle the slow yet seemingly endemic apathy of its political support base if it wants to maintain its majority. The governing party has lost votes at every election since 2009 when Zuma was first elected into office.

Over and above this concern is a Constitutional Court ruling that ordered the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) to capture addresses for all voters on the voters’ roll.

At the time of that 2016 ruling, only 34% of registered voters had provided addresses. This has since increased to 82% of 26 million voters. However, the unaddressed voters still account for 1.6 million people, who are predominantly rural-based and likely to be ANC voters.

“Seen this way, the ANC could limp into the 2019 elections and a coalition government [would] be necessary. However, if there is no bombshell on the path of the ANC in the state capture commission, then there is a great possibility that the ANC will lose from 62% downwards but remain above 51%,” said Mnguni.

Various polls have placed the ANC in front and above the magic 50% mark to form a government without a coalition partner. The final challenge will be making sure the IEC is deemed credible.

“The question on readiness this time around arises out of the IEC being unable to clean up the voters’ roll and capture addresses for all voters, as per the constitutional court judgment,” Mnguni said.

“In this respect, President Cyril Ramaphosa’s [perceived] pronouncement [that elections would take place by May] was ill-advised as he too needs to be guided by the decision of the court,” said Mnguni.

Ramaphosa made the comment at the unveiling of a statute of former president Nelson Mandela at the United Nations in New York last month.

The IEC has asked the constitutional court to waiver the need for an address of all voters to beyond the 2019 election.

The court’s decision is pending.