Percentages: what does it really prove?

Heinz Schenk

Earlier this week, former Springbok assistant coach Brendan Venter reminded the rugby community in a column that, from a pure numbers point of view, Rassie Erasmus’ transformation record had been worse than his predecessor Allister Coetzee.

“Erasmus guaranteed a 45% transformation rate when he set off but only achieved 38%, which is worse than Coetzee who posted 40%,” he wrote.

The problem with local sporting federations’ spotty transformation efforts in the past 15 years or so is that it’s become a numbers game.

As the frustrated majority increasingly crave change, so has the desire for immediate “visible results”.

And, unfortunately, raw numbers tend to be a way for exhibiting “visible results”.

However, what Venter’s statement really warrants is an honest debate over quality v quantity.

Measuring transformation purely in terms of how many black players have been used during a season is, frankly, a bit lazy.

A national coach can finish a season with a 70% representation record, but what if that involved picking different black players every week?

What if the most games a black player played during the season was three or four because of the musical chairs for places?

Transformation surely can’t just be judged on a player being picked.

Otherwise one could easily just select 50 black players in a season.

What about the actual opportunity to grow, to be handed a full season to be exposed to international rugby?

Erasmus might’ve had a lower number, but he appointed Siya Kolisi as the Springboks’ first black Test captain.

Importantly, he allowed him to grow in the role and kept patient during the period when the flanker was finding the balance between being a key player while also finding his feet as leader.

Aphiwe Dyantyi walked away as World Rugby’s breakthrough Player of the Year on the back of being backed to the hilt.

Even when his on-field performances tailed off in Europe, Erasmus kept playing him, ostensibly because the winger needed to learn to cope with conditions as well as a dip in form. He will be the better for it. Of course, Bongi Mbonambi and Embrose Papier might have been granted bigger roles, illustrating that this debate is far from being a clear-cut one.

But at least it shows it’s not just all about the numbers.