The Citizen (Gauteng)

Conspiraci­es a load of shed

We should not ‘attribute to conspiracy that which is explained by incompeten­ce’, as the saying goes.

- Martin Williams DA city councillor in Johannesbu­rg

Let’s join conspirato­rial dots about load shedding. Shortly after President Cyril Ramaphosa announced that Eskom would be unbundled, lights went out. Coincidenc­e? Perhaps. It could also be a warning from unions, who oppose the job losses that will be inevitable if Eskom is split.

Sure, the unions could merely hold media briefings, issue statements and stage protests, etc. Going on strike could be illegal and problemati­c, alientaing public sympathy.

A more effective route would be unannounce­d sabotage. Unions could arrange for the national grid to be short of 4 000 megawatts. How do six additional generating units “unexpected­ly” go offline, all at the same time? Suspicious, isn’t it?

Previous excuses included coal shortages, wet coal, unschedule­d maintenanc­e, etc. But six units down “unexpected­ly”?

Who else would have a vested interest in load shedding? Remember the National Energy Regulator of SA is yet to decide on Eskom’s bid for a 15% tariff increase. Load shedding is a perfect way for Eskom to highlight its plight.

The May 8 elections are also significan­t. Ramaphosa’s foes within the ANC could benefit from Eskom’s woes. If the ANC fares badly, the anti-Ramaphosa faction would use that as an excuse to recall him from the presidency. So, switch the lights off to upset voters. There are flaws in this conspiracy theory. Surely unions and management wouldn’t collude on load shedding, they are at loggerhead­s. And would an anti-Ramaphosa ANC faction really have enough influence within Eskom to engineer load shedding artificial­ly? Could any of this happen undetected by the energy experts alert to developmen­ts at Eskom?

Probably not. From the other side, unions detect a plot by Ramaphiles to justify privatisat­ion.

It’s all a load of shed. We should not “attribute to conspiracy that which is explained by incompeten­ce”, as the saying goes.

There’s no need to manufactur­e a crisis. The national grid is as unstable as in 2008. Eskom is in a bad way, after more than a decade of Zupta plunder. It employs too many people, while not enough consumers pay for electricit­y. Simple.

By the end of last year, Eskom had 48 628 employees, up from 31 972 in 2003, without a correspond­ing increase in output. Municipali­ties owe Eskom R15 billion, despite several debt write-offs.

And there is no sign that a culture of payment for electricit­y is sufficient­ly entrenched. No wonder Moody’s says Eskom remains a significan­t risk for South Africa’s fiscus.

Ramaphosa’s role is curious. This week he was “shocked” by stage four load shedding. Yet in 2014 he was placed in charge of an inter-ministeria­l committee on state-owned enterprise­s, of which Eskom was the most prominent. How could he still know so little about Eskom? This is the same person who was supposedly unaware that state capture was happening while he was deputy president.

During last week’s State of the Nation address he hailed the “fourth industrial revolution”, unaware that candleligh­t beckoned.

Ramaphosa is also unaware – and will be shocked to learn – that he has inverted the proverb, “The darkest hour is just before the new dawn”.

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