There is no ‘baby boom’ in SA
FEWER BIRTHS: SPEND ON PENSIONERS UP
While the population is growing at 1.2% (higher than the 1% world average), SA is not experiencing a population explosion.
The fastest growing part of our population is those over 65.
Whenever one writes on SA’s massive problems, like unemployment or the decline in per capita income, many readers are quick to blame population growth. While our population is growing at 1.2% (slightly higher than the 1% world average), SA is not experiencing a population explosion.
There are fewer births for the majority of the last six years. Population data shows that the fastest-growing part of our population is the over-65s. We’re getting older – and blaming the young falsely.
Over the last five years, the compounded annual population growth rate was 1.6% – slightly up from the 17-year-average of 1.5%, as the HIV/Aids medicine programme only really got going after 2012.
Groups with the lowest growth rate at present are children and young adults. While births are declining, the slight increase in children is probably due to net immigration and better child survival rates, as well as higher births a decade or so ago.
Moreover, the 15-24 cohort is actually in decline (still due to the Aids epidemic that peaked a decade or so ago).
The working-age population still reflects a lower base, partly due to Aids and some migration into SA. Growth of the main working age population is at 2.4% a year, which would be regarded as quite rapid growth, especially as Aids had a severe impact on this grouping, and this makes a comparison a bit more complicated.
Net migration is estimated to be about three million people, mostly in the 25-54 year cohort, over the last 20-odd years.
The main working age population (2554) was estimated at about 24 million, indicating that about 20% of the growth in this group is from net migration gains (immigration minus emigration numbers).
Statssa’s net migration estimates are that at least one million South Africans have left SA, while four million foreigners have come to live here – thus there is three million net migration.
Older adults will have some migration impact but it’s likely to be less in percentage terms, and here the growth rate is 2.6% – 1% higher than SA’s population growth as a whole over five years.
Pensioners: fastest growing cohort
More interesting is that the group of over65s – likely on pension or old age grants – is growing twice as fast as the overall population. Medical advances and chronic medicines are increasing people’s lifespan.
In the last two years or so the population growth rate has declined from 1.7% to 1.6%. It is forecast to slow to 1.4% by 2023.
So if one looks at the population tree, it’s growing taller faster than sideways. That is not what many people believe to be the case. Today, 50 is the new 30, and around the world retirement is being delayed.
Currently, the growth in our population is driven more by the number of deaths, which is in decline, than growth in births.
Over a more extended period, South Africa will need to spend less on schools than on nursing homes.