Has Prosus come too late to the party to scoop up Just Eat?

The message out of a conference call Prosus financial director Basil Sgourdos had with Just Eat shareholders, share analysts and investors was that Prosus has a better offer for Just Eat and is a stronger business partner going forward than the partner its board of directors has set its heart on.

Sgourdos might be right in his analysis that Prosus would make a better partner to Just Eat. It is a huge group with more than $9 billion worth in cash and short-term assets and earning several billion in revenue per year. Its big long-term asset, its holding in the Chinese Tencent internet giant, can readily be milked for a few billion in cash by a quick call to the local stockbroker.

In contrast, Takeaway.com has reported losses over the last three years. It suffered a loss of €30.9 million in the 2016 financial year, €42 million in the 2017 year and €14 million in the year to December 2018.

It remains to be seen if the cash offer of £5.94 per share to Just Eat shareholders will be successful, even if it represents a premium of 20% over yesterday’s closing price. The offer values Just Eat at £4.9 billion.

The first problem is that Prosus seemed to be a bit late to the party. Takeaway.com and Just Eat announced their proposed transaction at the beginning of August and have already published a schedule to finalise it.

Both Takeaway.com and Just Eat have scheduled shareholder meetings to seek ratification of the transaction on December 4, with final implementation early 2020.

What Prosus seemed to miss

The second, and more telling, problem is that Prosus seemed to have missed that the Takeaway.com and Just Eat transaction constitutes a reverse takeover of Takeaway.com by the smaller Just Eat.

While both parties describe the transaction as a merger, it is telling that Just Eat is the profitable party, and that Takeaway. com will change its name to Just Eat.

Thus far the directors of Just Eat have elected to go it alone and grow their business together with Takeaway.com rather than settle for a smaller role as a division within Prosus.

At this stage, anything can happen. It seems unlikely that Prosus will succeed in buying Just Eat outright. The most likely scenario is that it will pick up a significant stake in the new Just Eat and look to grow its shareholding with some joint ventures at operational level.