Tropical storm Eloise set to intensify

The rain which severe tropical storm Chalane brought to southern Africa during the Christmas and new year period is still fresh in the minds of the public and now, a fresh tropical system named Eloise has developed and is positioned off the northeastern quadrant of Madagascar.

As of yesterday, Eloise was classified to be a moderate tropical storm, with a central pressure slightly less than 1 000 hectopascal but, nevertheless, set to intensify in the coming days.

According to the South African Weather Service, the most likely track Eloise will follow should take it close to the coast of Madagascar today as it intensifies further to a severe tropical storm, with sustained winds likely to exceed 100km/h.

“Hence as Eloise makes landfall on this coastline in the latter part of today, it is likely to cause considerable wind-related damage, as well as delivering torrential rain,” said Kevin Rae of the weather service.

The good news is that, as Eloise moves across the landmass of northern Madagascar, it will be exposed to increased friction, as the winds interact with the rough land surface.

Moreover, Eloise will be deprived of the latent heat energy which it would normally receive from a warm, tropical ocean.

“We can therefore confidently predict that Eloise will weaken significantly during this particular period,” Rae said.

Alternatively, Eloise could gradually begin to move on a more southerly parabolic path, which could potentially take it further down the Mozambican coastline and possibly into the northeastern lowveld region of South Africa.

The speculative possibility of Eloise directly affecting South Africa is only one of a multitude of possible outcomes, given the long lead-time, and should be considered to be a “low probability/high uncertainty” worst-case scenario.

“In light of the above, the South African Weather Service wish to emphasise that there is much uncertainty surrounding the prediction of future development and movement of Eloise,” said Rae.

“Tropical systems are notoriously fickle and unpredictable, often exhibiting very erratic movement. Modern satellite remote sensing as well as advanced ensemble numeric modelling techniques do, however, mitigate much of this uncertainty, at least in the short-term.”

Further timely updates in relation to Eloise will be issued as and when necessary.

It is likely to cause considerable wind-related damage.