‘ANC, its president are stuck’

PROMISES: SOUTH AFRICA WORSE OFF SINCE LAST YEAR’S SONA ADDRESS, SAY EXPERTS ‘We need to look at bad ideas translated into bad policies.’

Political will and an urge to put the country’s interests above those of the party, is what it will take to place South Africa on course to social and economic recovery.

This is the view of experts ahead of next week’s State of the Nation Address (Sona) to be delivered by President Cyril Ramaphosa, as the country was still seriously lagging in key areas: energy stability, economic growth, unemployment, crime, corruption, dysfunctional municipalities, water and sanitation.

While Ramaphosa last year devoted much of the Sona on government plans to address the electricity crisis, South Africa continues to reel from Eskom blackouts – a crisis described by Ann Bernstein, Centre for Development and Enterprise executive director, as exhibiting “a country in decline”.

In last year’s Sona, Ramaphosa said: “We are working together to revitalise our economy, end the inequality and injustice that impedes our progress.

“We are standing together against corruption – to ensure that those who are responsible for state capture are punished.

“Unemployment has been caused by low growth, which has in turn resulted from a long-term decline in investment.

“With a view to addressing these challenges we are accelerating the implementation of far-reaching structural reforms to modernise and transform these industries.

“The electricity crisis is one of the greatest threats to economic and social progress.

“Due to our ageing power stations, poor maintenance, policy missteps and the ruinous effects of state capture, our country has a shortfall of about 4 000 megawatts of electricity.

“During the past year, we have taken firm steps to bring additional generation capacity online as quickly as possible to close the shortfall.”

Bernstein said South Africa was “a country with enormous potential, but is now in deep trouble”.

“The ANC and its president are stuck. “They have failed to modernise their movement into a party of government or to build a leadership core, infused with common values, urgency and the expertise to govern effectively and deliver.

“We need to look at bad ideas translated into bad policies, a failed strategy, its terrible consequences, no credible theory of how to change SA and therefore no priorities,” said Bernstein.

According to Bernstein, the Ramaphosa presidency was characterised by:

► Government’s belief in a developmental state to drive economic growth and transform SA when the state is corrupt and collapsing.

► Cadre deployment that puts people in charge of complex state institutions, based on party loyalty, instead of competence.

► A failure to appreciate the power of markets, firms and entrepreneurs to fundamentally change the country and empower millions.

► Ramaphosa’s commitment to ANC unity above all else.

University of Pretoria politics lecturer Roland Henwood agreed. “There has been very little progress since the last Sona,” he said.

“We have seen very slow and limited progress on old corruption cases and the completion of the state capture report – though the problems and practices on corruption seem to persist.

“There has been no progress on energy and water, with us being all worse off than last year.

“Real unemployment is higher and persistent, with crime being worse and seemingly institutionalised rather than managed.”

University of Johannesburg associate economics professor Peter Baur said poverty was “still a concern within South Africa”.

“Greater levels of economic growth will be needed to support reversing the impact of those living in poverty.

“Currently, the risk of the energy crisis to small and medium businesses in South Africa is a concern, as small businesses with low profit margins are at higher risk and ultimately affecting unemployment.

“Many small businesses find themselves in the informal sector, making up about 28.8% of the gross domestic product,” said Baur.

While there has been a global economic meltdown, South Africa experienced “a worsening energy crisis”.

“With that came the waning business confidence – especially among wholesalers and retailers,” said Baur.

A country with potential, but now in deep trouble