Hong Kong raiders to dominate
STRENGTH: JAPANESE RUNNERS LOOK TO HAVE THE ADVANTAGE OVER JADED LOCAL HORSES ʂ Highland Reel ticks all the right boxes in Vase.
We are all au fait with the saying “careful what you wish for”, and the Hong Kong Jockey Club who have worked tirelessly in trying to promote their biggest race meeting of the year on Sunday as “the grass world championships” must now fear that the realisation of their dream is about to bite them on the butt.
All of the four Group 1 races at Sha Tin this weekend are worth more than US$2m, but even with home advantage the Hong Kong horses this year have a jaded look about them and I fancy the strong Japanese raiding party to mop up three races, with Europe’s Breeders Cup Turf winner Highland Reel completing the whitewash by capturing the Vase for the second year running.
On form you cannot oppose HIGHLAND REEL with the only worry being that this race comes at the end of a long season.
However, he ticks every box in the manual. He relishes fast ground, which he will get on Sunday, he is proven on the track and travelling holds no fears whatsoever for a horse who besides winning Britain’s most prestigious middle-distance championship, the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot, also has last month’s runaway victory in California on his CV, not to mention success in the Secretariat in Chicago and brave placed efforts in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe in France and the Cox Plate in Sydney.
This looks a weaker renewal than the one Highland Reel won here 12 months ago, and I expect Aidan O’Brien’s globetrotting superstar to again grind his rivals into submission.
Japan might have the one for the Exacta here in Nuovo Record, who only just failed to catch A Shin Hikari in last season’s Hong Kong Cup and is a filly who won the Oaks in her homeland on her one run over this longer distance. For an outsider I like locallytrained Helene Happy Star, who finished fifth last year.
In Hong Kong, The Cup is looked upon as the jewel in their racing crown, but while A Shin Hikari dismantled his field last year with an aggressive front-running display, he can throw in the odd bad run as we witnessed both at Royal Ascot this year and again behind Maurice in the Tenno Sho Autumn.
MAURICE is so much more consistent than his Japanese rival. He was awesome when steamrolling the opposition in the Mile here last year and again when returning for the Champions Mile in May, and he has taken the step up to 2000m this season in his stride. Granted, Maurice was beaten in his first two races this season, but a bit like Arc winner Found everything he achieved in the early part of 2016 was a stepping-stone to bigger targets in the autumn, and, having proved himself over this trip at the top level last time, he comes here a worthy favourite with the word from trackside being that he quickly put on the weight he lost on the flight over.
Japan might celebrate a onetwo here, with Queen’s Ring, a six-time winner from 13 starts, including the Group 1 Queen Elizabeth Cup at Kyoto last month, where she was hugely impressive in staging a whirlwind finish, the choice to chase home the favourite.
Remember that QE11 Cup in Japan was the same race that Snow Fairy took en route to triumph in this race back in 2010.
Hong Kong are justifiably proud of their record in the Sprint, having won 12 of the 17 runnings, but two past winners, Aerovelocity and Peniaphobia, have looked to have started their descent this season, and the pick of the locals could be Lucky Bubbles, who ran the mighty Chautuaqua to a neck in the Group 1 Chairman’s Sprint last season.
Lucky Bubbles was beaten 0.5 lengths by Not Listenin’tome here last month, but that was only his second run of the year and connections have always had this dash as their number one target, so I fancy he can take his revenge on that unpredictable speedster.
However, Lucky Bubbles’ dreams might be popped by Japan’s latest flying machine, BIG ARTHUR, who has an exploding finishing kick which enabled him to win his first two races this year without breaking sweat.
Granted, Big Arthur finished only 12th when starting odds-on favourite for his last race, but he was all dressed up with nowhere to go up the straight, yet was still beaten less than three lengths as he passed the post hard on the bridle.
Japan won this race in 2012 and 2013 with that colossus called Lord Kanaloa, and all the chat at exercise at Sha Tin this week has been about Big Arthur and how favourably he compares with their dual winner.
The toughest race of the four on Sunday is the Mile, with Hong Kong having managed to repel the raiders 10 times in the last 12 years.
However, while Maurice opted out of defending his crown, going instead for the Cup, the only two horses to have beaten him in the last couple of years, Logotype and Neorealism, lead another strong Japanese challenge.
Logotype produced a 36-1 upset when making all to defeat Maurice in the Group 1 Yasuda Kinen in June, but he has twice disappointed since and with him and Neorealism both being confirmed front-runners the race could be set up for a closer, which brings compatriot SATONO ALADDIN into the equation.
On form there is little between the Japanese trio, but Satono Aladdin is the strongest finisher of the three and if he gets the breaks could pop up at rewarding odds.
Local champion Able Friend, who took our breath away when winning this race two years ago, was injured when finishing third to Maurice 12 months ago and has yet to recover his sparkle. At seven you have to wonder whether he is past his sell-by date.
For a longshot I prefer Able Friend’s stable companion Helene Paragon, who is much better than he looked when out of the money behind Beauty Only in last month’s Jockey Club Mile. He got no run whatsoever that day and, while he has to find a couple of lengths to reverse the form, it is by no means impossible if the cards fall his way.